suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-16 09:39

快报：新彗星C/2009 P1 (GARRADD)

MPEC 2009-P54北京时间8月16日6：12通报：
新彗星C/2009 P1 (GARRADD)，初始轨道显示彗星将于两年后的2011年8月10日过近日点，近日距1.25AU，最大亮度8等。
由于彗星还只被观测两天，轨道参数还有很大误差，后续将会有很大修正，甚至可能成为肉眼彗星？我将密切关注。
C/2009 P1 (GARRADD)
Ephemeris of comet C/2009 P1 Garradd
日期时间Top R.A.Top DecR (AU)距离El ? Mag
16 六月 201100:00:0001h 11m 41.7s+48°58' 00"1.50561.791757.19.0
21 六月 201100:00:0001h 28m 01.7s+53°49' 32"1.46611.725658.08.8
26 六月 201100:00:0001h 49m 13.5s+58°51' 51"1.42911.669758.48.7
01 七月 201100:00:0002h 18m 14.3s+63°55' 35"1.39491.625358.48.5
06 七月 201100:00:0003h 00m 12.3s+68°43' 17"1.36361.593658.18.4
11 七月 201100:00:0004h 03m 01.6s+72°42' 47"1.33571.575357.38.2
16 七月 201100:00:0005h 32m 03.9s+75°01' 20"1.31141.570456.18.2
21 七月 201100:00:0007h 12m 33.1s+74°49' 27"1.29111.578754.68.1
26 七月 201100:00:0008h 35m 20.1s+72°19' 17"1.27491.599252.88.1
31 七月 201100:00:0009h 32m 00.3s+68°29' 40"1.26311.630750.88.1
05 八月 201100:00:0010h 09m 46.4s+64°08' 02"1.25591.671348.58.1
10 八月 201100:00:0010h 35m 57.8s+59°39' 52"1.25331.719546.28.2
15 八月 201100:00:0010h 55m 06.0s+55°17' 31"1.25541.773343.88.2
20 八月 201100:00:0011h 09m 46.2s+51°06' 43"1.26221.830941.38.3
25 八月 201100:00:0011h 21m 29.4s+47°09' 53"1.27361.890738.98.4
30 八月 201100:00:0011h 31m 10.3s+43°27' 40"1.28941.951336.68.6
04 九月 201100:00:0011h 39m 23.4s+39°59' 48"1.30942.011234.48.7
09 九月 201100:00:0011h 46m 31.2s+36°45' 27"1.33332.069532.48.8
14 九月 201100:00:0011h 52m 49.2s+33°43' 35"1.36092.125130.79.0
19 九月 201100:00:0011h 58m 28.3s+30°53' 04"1.39192.177329.49.1
24 九月 201100:00:0012h 03m 36.1s+28°12' 50"1.42592.225628.59.3
29 九月 201100:00:0012h 08m 17.7s+25°41' 55"1.46272.269228.09.4
04 十月 201100:00:0012h 12m 36.6s+23°19' 23"1.50192.307928.29.6
09 十月 201100:00:0012h 16m 34.9s+21°04' 21"1.54332.341328.89.7
14 十月 201100:00:0012h 20m 14.5s+18°56' 02"1.58672.369430.19.9
19 十月 201100:00:0012h 23m 36.3s+16°53' 43"1.63182.391831.810.0
24 十月 201100:00:0012h 26m 40.8s+14°56' 45"1.67842.408734.010.2
29 十月 201100:00:0012h 29m 27.7s+13°04' 37"1.72622.419836.510.3
03 十一月 201100:00:0012h 31m 56.0s+11°16' 49"1.77522.425439.510.4
08 十一月 201100:00:0012h 34m 04.8s+09°32' 52"1.82522.425542.710.5

6251569 发表于 2009-8-16 09:49

暴汗8等 我不看了 - -

AllenIverson 发表于 2009-8-16 10:02

还是最亮8等::070821_17.jpg::

suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-16 10:07

由于彗星还只被观测两天，轨道参数还有很大误差，后续将会有很大修正，甚至可能成为肉眼彗星？我将密切关注。

我才汗呢
上面写的很清楚
因为观测时间短，彗星离近日点还很远，数据误差很大，所以我才特别发帖，这里面变化会很大的，前几年出现过几次新彗星轨道重大修正，甚至有一颗从初始预报肉眼不可见的修正成掠日负星等彗星。
哈哈

星辉 发表于 2009-8-16 10:11

本帖最后由 星辉 于 2009-8-16 10:13 编辑

现在在南天嘛，这颗高兴在线也没希望。呵呵。再说了，只有18等。

suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-16 10:26

现在在南天嘛，这颗高兴在线也没希望。呵呵。再说了，只有18等。
星辉 发表于 2009-8-16 10:11 http://www.astronomy.com.cn/bbs/images/common/back.gif


这是作为新彗星跟踪贴
我对近日点前很久就被发现，而且近日距理想的彗星特别敏感，而且我也成功发帖跟踪过一些热点彗星，如那颗掠日大彗星.
这种状态和类型的彗星可供想象的空间很大。
2009P1将平淡无奇还是成为耀眼明星？
拭目以待::070821_19.jpg::

wb34 发表于 2009-8-16 11:01

那颗掠日大彗星对高纬度的有利

星辉 发表于 2009-8-18 23:11

GARRADD彗星图片:

suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-18 23:46

让我们回忆精彩壮观的c/2006P1
2006年8月8日MPEC 2006-P31 通报了新彗星C/2006 P1 (McNAUGHT)
一下是两天观测数据取得的初始轨道根数：
Orbital elements:
    C/2006 P1 (McNaught)
T 2007 June 17.713 TT                                 MPC
q   1.55508            (2000.0)            P               Q
                   Peri.109.726       -0.748618       +0.298711
                   Node   268.367       +0.107670       +0.935678
e   1.0            Incl.143.691       +0.654201       +0.187827
From 19 observations 2006 Aug. 7-8.


3天以后，MPEC 2006-P43公布了轨道修正：
Orbital elements:
    C/2006 P1 (McNaught)
T 2007 Jan. 11.742 TT                                 MPC
q   0.16964            (2000.0)            P               Q
                   Peri.156.022       +0.137954       -0.198530
                   Node   267.400       +0.676404       +0.734540
e   1.0            Incl.   76.249       +0.723496       -0.648874
From 39 observations 2006 Aug. 7-11.
从一颗默默无闻的平淡彗星一跃成为10年来的超级大明星
2009P1是否也会上演戏剧性的一幕呢？
我们继续跟踪。

gahwxf 发表于 2009-8-19 07:07

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phenix 发表于 2009-8-19 10:34

楼上能不能不再发这类没用的东西？

kson 发表于 2009-8-19 10:53

::070821_13.jpg::快了快了，又可以一睹彗容了

jiankang 发表于 2009-8-20 11:59

期待 中::070821_13.jpg::

PJ12120 发表于 2009-8-20 14:48

星辉 发表于 2009-8-20 22:40

根据最新测报，过近日点推迟到2012年2月份。本人粗略算了一下，近日时坐标和亮度如下：

14 Feb 201217 49 31.838   +42 32 10.321.8443 1.901978.08.0
19 Feb 201217 45 00.511   +46 15 06.791.7890 1.922682.27.9
24 Feb 201217 38 16.658   +50 16 05.681.7397 1.945286.37.9
29 Feb 201217 28 23.253   +54 32 18.551.6982 1.969590.27.9
5 Mar 201217 13 52.198   +58 58 15.311.6665 1.995693.87.9
10 Mar 201216 52 24.952   +63 24 28.581.6464 2.023397.08.0

suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-20 23:49

这次有点失望了
根据最新的轨道参数，彗星的近日点做了较大修正，不过是变远了。从1.2修正到1.7AU，初步计算，由于近日点时彗星离地球很远，最大亮度将在2012年4月，仅仅稍亮于10等，不过它将穿过小熊座，对于北半球高纬度来说将整夜可见。

星辉 发表于 2009-8-23 23:49

发现时的图片:

suhuasky 发表于 2009-8-24 07:39

本帖最后由 suhuasky 于 2009-8-24 07:40 编辑

最新数据：
MPEC 2009-Q51
C/2009 P1 (Garradd)
T 2012 Jan. 8.433 TT                                    MPC
q   1.62074            (2000.0)            P               Q
                   Peri.   89.313       -0.170257       -0.815558
                   Node   324.435       -0.615599       +0.526288
e   1.0            Incl.108.030       +0.769448       +0.240598
From 18 observations 2009 Aug. 13-23.
预报：
Ephemeris of comet C/2009 P1 Garradd
日期Geo R.A.Geo DecR (AU)距离El ? Mag
01 五月 201122h 53m 59.8s-11°27' 38"3.49213.888259.812.4
06 五月 201122h 55m 20.1s-10°42' 50"3.44453.764364.112.3
11 五月 201122h 56m 23.2s-09°57' 25"3.39683.637368.312.1
16 五月 201122h 57m 06.7s-09°11' 16"3.34903.507872.712.0
21 五月 201122h 57m 28.0s-08°24' 13"3.30133.376277.111.8
26 五月 201122h 57m 24.2s-07°36' 08"3.25353.242981.611.7
31 五月 201122h 56m 51.6s-06°46' 52"3.20573.108686.211.5
05 六月 201122h 55m 46.2s-05°56' 13"3.15802.973890.911.4
10 六月 201122h 54m 03.5s-05°03' 59"3.11022.839295.811.2
15 六月 201122h 51m 38.6s-04°09' 53"3.06252.7056100.811.0
20 六月 201122h 48m 25.9s-03°13' 41"3.01482.5737105.910.9
25 六月 201122h 44m 18.7s-02°15' 08"2.96722.4443111.210.7
30 六月 201122h 39m 10.1s-01°13' 59"2.91972.3183116.710.5
05 七月 201122h 32m 52.1s-00°10' 02"2.87232.1971122.310.3
10 七月 201122h 25m 17.2s+00°56' 48"2.82502.0816128.110.1
15 七月 201122h 16m 18.0s+02°06' 33"2.77781.9732134.19.9
20 七月 201122h 05m 48.0s+03°18' 54"2.73081.8732140.09.7
25 七月 201121h 53m 42.4s+04°33' 13"2.68391.7831145.79.5
30 七月 201121h 40m 00.4s+05°48' 26"2.63731.7044150.79.4
04 八月 201121h 24m 46.3s+07°02' 59"2.59091.6385154.49.2
09 八月 201121h 08m 11.9s+08°14' 57"2.54481.5865155.79.1
14 八月 201120h 50m 35.5s+09°22' 10"2.49911.5493153.98.9
19 八月 201120h 32m 22.0s+10°22' 28"2.45361.5271149.58.8
24 八月 201120h 14m 00.7s+11°14' 09"2.40861.5198143.58.7
29 八月 201119h 56m 02.2s+11°56' 15"2.36401.5266136.58.7
03 九月 201119h 38m 54.6s+12°28' 45"2.31991.5462129.28.6
08 九月 201119h 22m 59.7s+12°52' 28"2.27631.5768121.98.6
13 九月 201119h 08m 31.7s+13°08' 46"2.23341.6167114.78.5
18 九月 201118h 55m 37.7s+13°19' 15"2.19111.6637107.88.5
23 九月 201118h 44m 19.1s+13°25' 31"2.14961.7160101.28.5
28 九月 201118h 34m 33.1s+13°29' 09"2.10881.771894.98.5
03 十月 201118h 26m 14.2s+13°31' 31"2.06901.829488.98.5
08 十月 201118h 19m 14.7s+13°33' 46"2.03011.887283.38.4
13 十月 201118h 13m 26.3s+13°36' 48"1.99231.944078.08.4
18 十月 201118h 08m 41.2s+13°41' 17"1.95571.998673.08.4
23 十月 201118h 04m 51.9s+13°47' 49"1.92042.050068.48.4
28 十月 201118h 01m 51.7s+13°56' 55"1.88642.097464.08.4
02 十一月 201117h 59m 34.4s+14°09' 01"1.85392.139960.08.3
07 十一月 201117h 57m 53.7s+14°24' 31"1.82312.176956.38.3
12 十一月 201117h 56m 44.7s+14°43' 43"1.79402.207952.98.3
17 十一月 201117h 56m 03.0s+15°06' 55"1.76672.232450.08.2
22 十一月 201117h 55m 44.6s+15°34' 30"1.74142.250147.58.2
27 十一月 201117h 55m 46.2s+16°06' 51"1.71822.260645.48.1
02 十二月 201117h 56m 04.2s+16°44' 26"1.69722.263643.98.1
07 十二月 201117h 56m 35.3s+17°27' 40"1.67862.259243.08.0
12 十二月 201117h 57m 16.8s+18°17' 04"1.66242.247242.68.0
17 十二月 201117h 58m 06.1s+19°13' 13"1.64882.227842.97.9
22 十二月 201117h 59m 00.9s+20°16' 51"1.63772.201043.77.9
27 十二月 201117h 59m 58.3s+21°28' 52"1.62942.167045.17.8
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06 一月 201218h 01m 48.3s+24°21' 57"1.62112.079149.47.7
11 一月 201218h 02m 34.3s+26°05' 24"1.62112.026252.27.6
16 一月 201218h 03m 08.8s+28°02' 04"1.62401.968255.37.6
21 一月 201218h 03m 26.9s+30°13' 45"1.62961.906058.87.5
26 一月 201218h 03m 21.3s+32°42' 23"1.63801.840662.57.5
31 一月 201218h 02m 42.3s+35°30' 06"1.64911.773366.57.4
05 二月 201218h 01m 17.2s+38°38' 59"1.66281.705470.67.4
10 二月 201217h 58m 47.8s+42°11' 05"1.67911.638774.97.3
15 二月 201217h 54m 46.8s+46°08' 03"1.69781.575079.47.3
20 二月 201217h 48m 31.2s+50°30' 27"1.71881.516583.87.3
25 二月 201217h 38m 49.4s+55°16' 47"1.74211.465688.27.2
01 三月 201217h 23m 38.5s+60°21' 50"1.76741.424692.37.2
06 三月 201216h 59m 15.0s+65°34' 07"1.79471.396096.07.3
11 三月 201216h 18m 45.9s+70°30' 48"1.82391.381899.07.3
16 三月 201215h 11m 22.1s+74°27' 47"1.85481.3838101.27.4
21 三月 201213h 33m 13.0s+76°14' 09"1.88731.4028102.47.5
26 三月 201211h 53m 18.9s+75°04' 42"1.92131.4387102.67.6
31 三月 201210h 43m 17.9s+71°47' 17"1.95671.4908101.87.8
05 四月 201210h 01m 15.0s+67°35' 58"1.99341.5578100.18.0
10 四月 201209h 36m 09.9s+63°13' 57"2.03121.637997.78.2
15 四月 201209h 20m 48.1s+59°00' 41"2.07011.729194.88.3
20 四月 201209h 11m 14.3s+55°04' 02"2.10991.829591.58.6
25 四月 201209h 05m 20.3s+51°26' 37"2.15071.937387.98.8
30 四月 201209h 01m 51.9s+48°08' 30"2.19222.050884.29.0
05 五月 201209h 00m 04.0s+45°08' 31"2.23452.168480.49.2
10 五月 201208h 59m 27.9s+42°24' 58"2.27752.289076.69.4
15 五月 201208h 59m 44.7s+39°56' 00"2.32112.411472.79.6
20 五月 201209h 00m 41.7s+37°39' 53"2.36522.534568.89.8
25 五月 201209h 02m 09.6s+35°35' 00"2.40982.657564.99.9
30 五月 201209h 04m 01.4s+33°39' 55"2.45492.779561.110.1
04 六月 201209h 06m 11.8s+31°53' 24"2.50032.899957.210.3
09 六月 201209h 08m 36.8s+30°14' 17"2.54613.018253.410.5
14 六月 201209h 11m 13.4s+28°41' 38"2.59223.133749.510.6
19 六月 201209h 13m 59.2s+27°14' 36"2.63863.246045.710.8
24 六月 201209h 16m 52.3s+25°52' 29"2.68523.354641.910.9
29 六月 201209h 19m 50.5s+24°34' 41"2.73203.459238.111.1
04 七月 201209h 22m 52.6s+23°20' 40"2.77913.559234.311.2
09 七月 201209h 25m 57.2s+22°09' 58"2.82633.654630.511.3
14 七月 201209h 29m 03.3s+21°02' 10"2.87363.745026.711.4
19 七月 201209h 32m 10.1s+19°56' 57"2.92103.830122.911.6
24 七月 201209h 35m 16.5s+18°54' 01"2.96853.909719.111.7
29 七月 201209h 38m 21.6s+17°53' 07"3.01613.983515.311.8
03 八月 201209h 41m 24.5s+16°54' 01"3.06384.051511.511.9
08 八月 201209h 44m 24.6s+15°56' 32"3.11154.11357.712.0
13 八月 201209h 47m 21.2s+15°00' 29"3.15934.16943.812.1
18 八月 201209h 50m 13.5s+14°05' 43"3.20704.21911.012.2
23 八月 201209h 53m 00.7s+13°12' 07"3.25484.26244.212.3
28 八月 201209h 55m 42.0s+12°19' 36"3.30264.29948.112.4
02 九月 201209h 58m 16.5s+11°28' 04"3.35034.330112.112.4
07 九月 201210h 00m 43.6s+10°37' 25"3.39814.354616.112.5


彗星亮于9等的时间长达8个月，这个亮度普通小望远镜很容易观测

星辉 发表于 2009-8-24 11:20

看来情况不是很糟，现在应该较准确一点了。

魍魉 发表于 2009-8-25 23:29

有机会还是想看一下彗星的~~::070821_09.jpg::
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查看完整版本: 快报：新彗星C/2009 P1 (GARRADD)