Lyrids 1901-2100 天琴座流星雨预报
Mikhail Maslov最近发布的预报Lyrids 1901-2100: activity prediction
The table given below lists encounters bertween the Earth and Lyrid trails (1472 and 108, the parent comet С\1861 G1 (Thatcher)). It should be noted that the "ZHRex" column contains "own" expected ZHRs of the outbursts. To obtain overall expected activity one should add background activity (15-20 meteors at traditional maximum).
cases of predicted activityyearday, timeZHRexcomments-UTmeteors-192121.04.1921 11:24851472 trail, Vej=17.36 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00043 AU192221.04.1922 19:313031472 trail, Vej=17.62 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00004 AU192322.04.1923 3:29301472 trail, Vej=17.87 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00072 AU194521.04.1945 14:3851472 trail, Vej=23.27 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00148 AU194621.04.1946 22:31121472 trail, Vej=23.51 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00103 AU194722.04.1947 6:1141472 trail, Vej=23.74 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00167 AU194722.04.1947 0:2231089 trail, Vej=-48.65 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00072 AU195621.04.1956 5:2921089 trail, Vej=-47.29 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00054 AU21.04.1956 8:3071089 trail, Vej=10.39 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00016 AU21.04.1956 11:1871472 trail, Vej=25.81 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00127 AU195721.04.1957 12:5031089 trail, Vej=-47.39 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00028 AU21.04.1957 16:0611089 trail, Vej=10.36 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00093 AU21.04.1957 19:06481472 trail, Vej=26.04 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00050 AU195821.04.1958 23:2621089 trail, Vej=10.29 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00050 AU21.04.1958 23:4821089 trail, Vej=10.34 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00062 AU22.04.1958 3:01181472 trail, Vej=26.27 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00085 AU195922.04.1959 6:4821089 trail, Vej=10.27 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00098 AU198021.04.1980 14:40461472 trail, Vej=31.04 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00047 AU198121.04.1981 22:43731472 trail, Vej=31.25 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00029 AU198222.04.1982 6:48921472 trail, Vej=31.46 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00017 AU198322.04.1983 14:2341472 trail, Vej=31.67 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00171 AU200322.04.2003 10:4251472 trail, Vej=-48.59 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00025 AU200522.04.2005 1:3041472 trail, Vej=36.06 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00162 AU200622.04.2006 9:1821472 trail, Vej=36.26 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00196 AU201122.04.2011 15:1921472 trail, Vej=-48.48 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00045 AU201522.04.2015 14:4311089 trail, Vej=20.15 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00069 AU201621.04.2016 20:4811089 trail, Vej=-33.43 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00060 AU21.04.2016 21:4431472 trail, Vej=38.15 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00178 AU21.04.2016 22:1011089 trail, Vej=20.14 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00050 AU201722.04.2017 5:3631472 trail, Vej=38.34 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00179 AU22.04.2017 5:5511089 trail, Vej=20.12 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00054 AU201822.04.2018 13:2111089 trail, Vej=20.10 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00040 AU202821.04.2028 20:2521089 trail, Vej=19.92 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00022 AU202922.04.2029 3:5131089 trail, Vej=19.90 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00012 AU203022.04.2030 10:5821089 trail, Vej=19.87 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00064 AU22.04.2030 14:2521472 trail, Vej=-48.21 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00089 AU203922.04.2039 16:3121472 trail, Vej=42.30 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00136 AU204022.04.2040 0:27461472 trail, Vej=42.47 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00021 AU204122.04.2041 8:34431472 trail, Vej=42.64 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00026 AU22.04.2041 9:0111089 trail, Vej=23.18 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00028 AU204222.04.2042 16:2051472 trail, Vej=42.82 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00146 AU205022.04.2050 11:0721472 trail, Vej=-35.82 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00036 AU205722.04.2057 9:4411472 trail, Vej=-35.74 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00041 AU205822.04.2058 14:0811472 trail, Vej=-35.73 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00048 AU205922.04.2059 18:4511472 trail, Vej=-35.72 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00043 AU206322.04.2063 19:3411089 trail, Vej=25.90 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00036 AU206422.04.2064 3:3691472 trail, Vej=46.50 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00102 AU22.04.2064 5:0311472 trail, Vej=-37.37 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00057 AU206522.04.2065 11:3191472 trail, Vej=46.66 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00100 AU22.04.2065 12:0621472 trail, Vej=-30.07 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00043 AU22.04.2065 12:5191472 trail, Vej=-37.44 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00020 AU206622.04.2066 20:1621472 trail, Vej=-37.51 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00091 AU22.04.2066 19:3711472 trail, Vej=-30.05 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00058 AU207322.04.2073 9:5611472 trail, Vej=-38.03 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00137 AU207422.04.2074 16:0611472 trail, Vej=-38.13 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00063 AU22.04.2074 16:2041472 trail, Vej=-38.10 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00050 AU207522.04.2075 18:4911472 trail, Vej=-39.64 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00160 AU23.04.2075 0:0941472 trail, Vej=48.25 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00148 AU207622.04.2076 2:5021472 trail, Vej=-39.52 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00064 AU22.04.2076 8:0071472 trail, Vej=48.41 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00113 AU207722.04.2077 10:4931472 trail, Vej=-39.41 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00088 AU22.04.2077 13:5411472 trail, Vej=-38.48 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00168 AU22.04.2077 15:4521472 trail, Vej=48.56 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00193 AU207822.04.2078 20:1341472 trail, Vej=-38.70 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00027 AU22.04.2078 20:3471472 trail, Vej=-38.61 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00016 AU22.04.2078 20:5111089 trail, Vej=25.72 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00010 AU208022.04.2080 10:2221472 trail, Vej=-35.53 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00044 AU22.04.2080 11:3211472 trail, Vej=-29.92 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00044 AU208422.04.2084 6:3811472 trail, Vej=-29.90 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00027 AU208622.04.2086 13:3411089 trail, Vej=25.53 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00095 AU208722.04.2087 20:3111089 trail, Vej=25.51 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00057 AU208822.04.2088 12:1211472 trail, Vej=-31.76 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00056 AU208922.04.2089 9:5791089 trail, Vej=25.32 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00051 AU22.04.2089 10:00201089 trail, Vej=25.32 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00047 AU22.04.2089 10:4621089 trail, Vej=25.41 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00023 AU22.04.2089 10:5211089 trail, Vej=25.43 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00029 AU22.04.2089 10:5911089 trail, Vej=25.44 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00038 AU22.04.2089 19:3541472 trail, Vej=-31.82 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00060 AU209222.04.2092 11:4721472 trail, Vej=-29.84 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00001 AU209523.04.2095 2:1511472 trail, Vej=-29.80 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00108 AU209622.04.2096 4:3121472 trail, Vej=-24.59 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00019 AU22.04.2096 8:3521472 trail, Vej=-32.25 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00094 AU209722.04.2097 8:5021472 trail, Vej=-33.85 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00097 AU22.04.2097 14:3011472 trail, Vej=-32.33 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00144 AU209822.04.2098 15:0011472 trail, Vej=-33.78 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00141 AU22.04.2098 19:2741472 trail, Vej=51.75 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00139 AU209922.04.2099 23:1711089 trail, Vej=27.86 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00073 AU23.04.2099 1:1511089 trail, Vej=28.15 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00066 AU23.04.2099 3:14281472 trail, Vej=51.90 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00003 AU23.04.2099 4:2331472 trail, Vej=-29.69 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00124 AU210023.04.2100 7:2921089 trail, Vej=27.88 m/s, rD-rE=-0.00026 AU23.04.2100 9:0311089 trail, Vej=28.11 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00092 AU23.04.2100 11:21231472 trail, Vej=52.05 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00031 AU
yct58.gif顶LZ 最近几年真是少的可怜啊…… 春天里流星雨最少了 :sleepy:///////////
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