948221078 发表于 2010-5-23 16:53

2010年六月牧夫座流星雨最新预测

In 2010 the particles cloud which caused June Bootids activity in 2004 gets close to the Earth again. In 2004 maximum intensity of very lengthy outburst was around ZHR=30-40. In 2010 conditions are much worse and the computations doesn't show any encounters with 7P trails. So far we haven't any direct signs of possible outburst. Still, considering the resonant nature of this particles cloud we recommend to pay special attention to June Bootids this year. It can't be excluded, that some older, not computed trails are also located in that resonant area.
In other words, there is some (low) possibility of weak activity, perhaps not higher than ZHR of 5-10. The activity, if any, is expected most likely to occur on June 23 and 24, so these dates should be monitored especially closely. Also, it is known that June Bootids outbursts are very rare, so any activity level above zero is already a significant event. Observers should note that radiant of such possible activity could significanly, up to 5-10° stay away from adopted values. Unfortunately, the almost full Moon in the evening on June 23 and 24 will significantly worsen conditions for checking possible June Bootid activity.

6251569 发表于 2010-5-23 21:02

= = 有点再看 天书的感觉！！！

szkmf 发表于 2010-5-23 21:50

能翻译一下吗？····

stephen006 发表于 2010-5-23 23:19

stephen006 发表于 2010-5-23 23:20

stephen006 发表于 2010-5-23 23:24

948221078 发表于 2010-5-24 06:56

“换句话说，有一些弱的活动（低）的可能性，也许并不比5-10每小时天顶流量高。这次活动，如果有的话，预计 ...
stephen006 发表于 2010-5-23 23:24 http://www.astronomy.com.cn/bbs/images/common/back.gif


    Also, it is known that June Bootids outbursts are very rare, so any activity level above zero is already a significant event.

JBO流量大于0也是比较稀有的啦
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