2010年9月6日127号小行星掩9.6等星预报
本帖最后由 活动星图 于 2010-8-21 19:40 编辑本次现象发生于世界时2010年9月6日，现象中点为20:24 （北京时间7日04:24），直径为123千米的127号小行星Johanna，将遮掩9.6等的双子座恒星TYC 1907-01045-1（赤经7时04分00.8672秒，赤纬+28度29分26.908秒），观测等级为87%。本次现象中，被掩星亮度降幅为4.1等，现象持续时间最多3.8秒。
掩星带穿过我国浙江南端、福建大部、广东大部、湖南南端、广西东南部，福州市位于掩星带中（见掩时间为04:22:36,见掩概率60%），广州市在掩星带南侧的预报误差带中。小行星的轨道不是很精确，掩星带的预报误差较大，所以需要大家的观测数据来提高轨道精度，无论您观测后见到何种现象，都请告诉我们。
本报不作详细预报，附上掩星带详细预报（因无福建详细地点数据，仅提供福建边界图以供参考），欲观测本次现象的同好请用站内信将您的观测点坐标发给我们，我们给您提供相关数据。
Occult的计算用参数（来自IOTA）为：
--------------------------我是分隔线-----以下是参数-----------------------------
2010 Sep6
127 Johanna
20h 25.0m UT
9.6 740.867 28 29 26.91TYC 1907-01045-1 10.7
13.7 123 3.8 2.969 4.145 -0.04
173.931628.491-126.68 6.24
20.4167 -0.000800.14427 18.44339 -0.01258 -0.004800.00082
2000 322.3586922010 9 1.00000 94.648318 31.2166688.2416460.06486572 2.7546576 2.5759748 8.3 5.00.15
RATE 2.1557710 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
Meas0.032 0.023 01.56 0.032 0 0 2-2 055387.0020100906_1045-1
--------------------------我是分隔线-----以上是参数-----------------------------
牧夫天文论坛掩星观测版
翱天理学实验室天文组
2010年8月21日联合发布 本帖最后由 活动星图 于 2010-8-21 20:44 编辑
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(127) Johanna / TYC 1907-01045-1 event on 2010 Sep 06, 20:24 UT
Visible from S China
Summary
-------
On 2010 Sep 06 UT, the 123 km diameter asteroid (127) Johanna will occult a 9.6
mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across S China.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star
will drop by 4.1 mag to 13.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8
seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly
provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys),
and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
The event at a glimpse
----------------------
* Rank: 87
* date and approx. time of event: 2010 Sep 06, 20:21- 2010 Sep 06, 20:23UT
* midpoint of event : 2455446.35069583
* magnitude of target star: 9.6
* magnitude drop : 4.1
* estimated maximum duration : 3.8
* Moon: 4 % sunlit, 37° distance
* Sun: 60° distance
* rough path description: S China
The occultation path
--------------------
* approximate projected width : 124
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval : +/- 0.56
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval : +/- 1.3
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .023 +/- .032)
* 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .032", .023", 0° )
* approx speed of asteroid's shadow : 32.6763
* website for maps:
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of TYC 1907-01045-1 by 127 Johanna on 2010 Sep6
Centre StarStar Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o'" o'" hms o o o o'" o'" o'" o'"
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
8100 7 252 20 21 47 0 61 -60 .. .. .. 83 34 .. .. .. 8 46 49
8200 7 57 53 20 21 47 1 61 -59 7 19 24 8 36 26 6 36 24 9 19 42
8300 8 30 44 20 21 47 2 62 -58 7 52 15 99 17 79 13 9 52 34
8400 93 34 20 21 48 3 62 -57 8 254 9 428 7 423 10 25 25
8500 9 36 23 20 21 48 5 62 -55 8 57 53 10 14 57 8 14 51 10 58 14
8600 1098 20 21 48 6 62 -54 9 30 39 10 47 43 8 47 37 11 310
8700 10 41 51 20 21 49 7 62 -53 103 21 11 20 24 9 20 19 123 42
8800 11 14 28 20 21 49 8 62 -52 10 35 59 11 531 9 52 58 12 36 18
8900 11 470 20 21 50 9 63 -51 118 32 12 25 33 10 25 31 138 49
9000 12 19 25 20 21 50 10 63 -50 11 40 58 12 57 57 10 57 59 13 41 12
9100 12 51 43 20 21 51 11 63 -49 12 13 17 13 30 14 11 30 19 14 13 28
9200 13 23 53 20 21 52 12 63 -48 12 45 28 142 22 122 31 14 45 34
9300 13 55 53 20 21 53 14 64 -46 13 17 30 14 34 21 12 34 35 15 17 31
9400 14 27 44 20 21 54 15 64 -45 13 49 22 1569 136 29 15 49 18
9500 14 59 23 20 21 55 16 64 -44 14 213 15 37 47 13 38 12 16 20 53
9600 15 30 50 20 21 56 17 64 -43 14 52 33 169 12 149 44 16 52 15
9700 1625 20 21 57 18 65 -42 15 23 49 16 40 24 14 414 17 23 25
9800 16 336 20 21 58 19 65 -41 15 54 53 17 11 22 15 12 10 17 54 20
9900 173 52 20 21 59 20 65 -40 16 25 43 17 426 15 433 18 251
10000 17 34 24 20 221 21 66 -39 16 56 17 18 12 35 16 13 41 18 55 26
10100 184 40 20 222 22 66 -38 17 26 36 18 42 48 16 443 19 25 36
10200 18 34 39 20 223 23 66 -37 17 56 39 19 12 44 17 14 10 19 55 28
10300 194 21 20 225 24 67 -36 18 26 25 19 42 23 17 43 59 20 253
10400 19 33 46 20 226 26 67 -35 18 55 52 20 11 43 18 13 31 20 54 19
10500 202 51 20 228 27 67 -33 19 252 20 40 45 18 42 44 21 23 17
10600 20 31 38 20 22 10 28 68 -32 19 53 52 219 28 19 11 39 21 51 55
10700 2105 20 22 11 29 68 -31 20 22 23 21 37 50 19 40 15 22 20 13
10800 21 28 11 20 22 13 30 69 -30 20 50 34 225 53 208 30 22 48 10
10900 21 55 57 20 22 15 31 69 -29 21 18 24 22 33 34 20 36 25 23 15 47
11000 22 23 21 20 22 17 32 69 -28 21 45 53 230 54 213 58 23 432
11100 22 50 24 20 22 19 33 70 -27 22 130 23 27 52 21 31 11 249 54
11200 23 174 20 22 21 34 70 -26 22 39 44 23 54 27 21 580 24 36 25
11300 23 43 21 20 22 23 35 71 -25 2367 24 20 40 22 24 28 252 32
11400 249 16 20 22 25 36 71 -24 23 326 24 46 29 22 50 32 25 28 16
11500 24 34 46 20 22 27 37 72 -23 23 57 41 25 11 55 23 16 14 25 53 36
11600 24 59 53 20 22 29 38 72 -22 24 22 53 25 36 57 23 41 31 26 18 32
11700 25 24 36 20 22 31 39 73 -21 24 47 41 261 35 246 25 26 434
11800 25 48 54 20 22 33 40 73 -20 25 125 26 25 48 24 30 54 277 12
11900 26 12 48 20 22 36 41 74 -19 25 363 26 49 36 24 54 58 27 30 54
12000 26 36 16 20 22 38 42 74 -18 25 59 37 27 130 25 18 38 27 54 12
12100 26 59 20 20 22 40 43 75 -17 26 22 45 27 35 58 25 41 52 28 174
12200 27 21 58 20 22 42 44 76 -16 26 45 29 27 58 30 264 41 28 39 31
12300 27 44 10 20 22 45 45 76 -15 277 46 28 20 37 26 274 291 31
12400 285 56 20 22 47 46 77 -14 27 29 37 28 42 18 26 491 29 236
12500 28 27 16 20 22 49 47 77 -13 27 513 293 33 27 10 33 29 44 16
12600 28 48 10 20 22 52 48 78 -12 28 122 29 24 22 27 31 38 304 58
12700 298 38 20 22 54 48 79 -11 28 32 36 29 44 45 27 52 17 30 25 15
12800 29 28 40 20 22 57 49 79 -11 28 52 43 304 41 28 12 30 30 456
12900 29 48 15 20 22 59 50 80 -10 29 12 23 30 24 11 28 32 16 314 30
13000 307 24 20 232 51 81 -9 29 31 37 30 43 14 28 51 36 31 23 27
13100 30 266 20 234 52 81 -8 29 50 24 311 51 29 10 29 31 41 58
13200 30 44 21 20 237 53 82 -7 308 45 31 202 29 28 55 3203
13300 312 10 20 239 54 83 -6 30 26 38 31 37 45 29 46 54 32 17 41
13400 31 19 32 20 23 12 55 84 -5 30 446 31 553 304 27 32 34 53
13500 31 36 28 20 23 14 56 85 -4 3116 32 11 53 30 21 33 32 51 38
13600 31 52 57 20 23 17 57 85 -3 31 17 40 32 28 17 30 38 12 337 56
13700 328 59 20 23 20 57 86 -2 31 33 47 32 44 15 30 54 25 33 23 48
13800 32 24 35 20 23 22 58 87 -1 31 49 27 32 59 45 31 10 10 33 39 13
13900 32 39 44 20 23 25 59 88 -1 324 41 33 14 50 31 25 29 33 54 13
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 10.0
Data for the target star
------------------------
* name: TYC 1907-01045-1
* constellation : Gemini
* J2000 position with proper motionto date of event
RA: 07 04 00.8672DE: +28 29 26.908
* position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2
* standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .017, .031 )
* V mag : 9.6
* B mag : 10.7
* Apparent position with proper motion
RA(deg): 106.1739055217DE(deg): 28.4741176259
* Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000078864289152
* Diameter : 0
* remarks:
Data for the minor planet
-------------------------
* general information:
(number) name: (127) Johanna
approx. diameter : 123
approx. diameter ["]: .057
distance from Earth : 2.96900
* orbital information:
orbit source: Preston
date of fit: 2010 Jul 08
source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys)
number of used observations: 819
number of rejected observations: 98
time covered by the observations: 1917 Oct 03 - 2010 Feb 15
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.016, 0.008, 93°
remarks:
* orbital elements for (127) Johanna :
Mean anomaly = 323.62003369 deg
Arg. of pericenter =94.64831770 deg
Long. of node =31.21666799 deg
Inclination = 8.24164559 deg
Eccentricity = 0.06486572
Semimajor axis = 2.75465762 AU
Perihelion dist = 2.57597478 AU
Mag: H = 8.48,G = 0.15
Epoch of elements: MJD 55445.85100000 TDT
(2010 Sep 06.851)
------ occelmnt file for OccultBEGIN -----------------------------------
2010 Sep6
127 Johanna
20h 25.0m UT
9.6 740.867 28 29 26.91TYC 1907-01045-1 10.7
13.7 123 3.8 2.969 4.145 -0.04
173.931628.491-126.68 6.24
20.4167 -0.000800.14427 18.44339 -0.01258 -0.004800.00082
2000 322.3586922010 9 1.00000 94.648318 31.2166688.2416460.06486572 2.7546576 2.5759748 8.3 5.00.15
RATE 2.1557710 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
Meas0.032 0.023 01.56 0.032 0 0 2-2 055387.0020100906_1045-1
------ occelmnt file for OccultEND -----------------------------------
============================================
Calculator (s): Steve Preston
Date of update: 2010 Jul 10, 20:28 UT
Steve Preston
7640 NE 32nd St
Medina, WA 98039
425-688-9965
mailto: stevepr@acm.org
江苏看不到. 等了一晚上，有一點雲，六等星可以看到，九等星看不到。
celespace 发表于 2010-9-7 04:48 AM http://www.astronomy.com.cn/bbs/images/common/back.gif
谢谢您的监测，辛苦！ 赞啊~~加油~~牧夫~~加油~~赞啊~~牧夫~~赞啊~~加油~~牧夫~~加油~~赞啊~~牧夫~~赞啊~~
::luguo::::004::::luguo::::004::::luguo::::004::::luguo::::sajiao::::yun2::::bye::yct56.gifyct53.gifyct51.gif::003::::0015::::0020::::0022::::0023::::0024::::0014::yct27.gifyct54.gifyct01.gifyct36.gifyct55.gifyct63.gifyct30.gifyct61.gifyct26.gifyct41.gifyct44.gifyct38.gifyct52.gifyct39.gifyct62.gifyct29.gif5092D.GIFyct22.gifyct37.gifyct58.gifyct57.gifyct60.gifyct34.gifyct33.gifyct46.gifyct24.gifyct32.gifyct02.gifyct40.gifyct50.gifyct59.gifyct31.gifyct42.gifyct53.gif::0023::::0022::::0020::yct43.gif::bye::
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