2010年9月15日2753号小行星掩6.8等星预报（北京等地可见）
本次现象发生于世界时2010年9月15日，现象中点为13:51 （北京时间15日21:51），直径为18千米的2753号小行星Duncan将遮掩6.8等的宝瓶座恒星HIP 112168（赤经22时43分03.4248秒，赤纬-08度18分41.230秒），观测等级为17%。本次现象中，被掩星亮度降幅为9.5等，现象持续时间最多1.5秒。掩星带穿过我国吉林南端、辽宁中部、河北中部、天津北端、北京中部、山西北部、陕西北端、内蒙南部、宁夏北部、甘肃中部、青海北部、新疆南部，北京海淀区、昌平区、顺义区、平谷区、兴隆观测站、新疆和田市等地位于掩星带中。小行星的轨道不是很精确，掩星带的预报误差较大，所以需要大家的观测数据来提高轨道精度，无论您观测后见到何种现象，都请告诉我们。
本报不作详细预报，附上掩星带路径，欲观测本次现象的同好请用站内信将您的观测点坐标发给我们，我们给您提供相关数据。
Occult的计算用参数（来自IOTA）为：
--------------------------我是分隔线-----以下是参数-----------------------------
2010 Sep 15
2753 Duncan
13h 51.9m UT
6.8 22 433.425- 8 18 41.23HIP 112168 6.6
16.3 18 1.5 1.862 -2.052 -6.28
138.3750-8.309 -29.16 2.92
13.8644 -0.156310.76262 -6.45237 -1.331290.001240.00052
2000 237.8038692010 911.00000123.928993344.6987646.8758070.03782688 2.7927177 2.687077912.3 5.00.15
RATE 2.1118520 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
Meas0.076 0.049 634.99 0.053 0 0-2 0 055398.0020100915_112168
--------------------------我是分隔线-----以上是参数-----------------------------
牧夫天文论坛掩星观测版
翱天理学实验室天文组
2010年9月10日联合发布 本帖最后由 活动星图 于 2010-9-10 14:19 编辑
http://asteroidoccultation.com/2010_09/0915_2753_22312.htm
http://asteroidoccultation.com/2 ... 3_22312_Summary.txt
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(2753) Duncan / HIP 112168 event on 2010 Sep 15, 13:51 UT
Visible from Japan, China
Summary
-------
On 2010 Sep 15 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (2753) Duncan will occult a 6.8
mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across Japan,
China.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star
will drop by 9.5 mag to 16.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.5
seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly
provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys),
and the following catalogs for the star position: .
The event at a glimpse
----------------------
* Rank: 17
* date and approx. time of event: 2010 Sep 15, 13:46- 2010 Sep 15, 13:57UT
* magnitude of target star: 6.8
* magnitude drop : 9.5
* estimated maximum duration : 1.5
* Moon: 53 % sunlit, 73° distance
* Sun: 167° distance
* rough path description: Japan, China
Additional comments
-------------------
3" multiple star sysstem
The occultation path
--------------------
* approximate projected width : 29
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval : +/- 3.99
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval : +/- 8.6
* 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .072 +/- .056)
* 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .076", .049", 63° )
* approx speed of asteroid's shadow : 11.6725
* website for maps:
http://www.asteroidoccultation.com
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of HIP 112168 by 2753 Duncan on 2010 Sep 15
Centre StarStar Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o'" o'" hms o o o o'" o'" o'" o'"
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
6200 38 13 30 13 57 29 6 106 0 38 21 24 385 37 39 25 20 .. .. ..
6300 387 16 13 57 27 7 106 -1 38 15 10 37 59 23 39 191 36 57 20
6400 381 20 13 57 26 8 107 -2 389 13 37 53 28 39 131 36 51 29
6500 37 55 43 13 57 24 9 108 -3 383 36 37 47 51 397 20 36 45 55
6600 37 50 24 13 57 22 10 108 -3 37 58 17 37 42 33 391 57 36 40 41
6700 37 45 25 13 57 20 10 109 -4 37 53 17 37 37 34 38 56 54 36 35 44
6800 37 40 44 13 57 18 11 110 -5 37 48 36 37 32 54 38 529 36 317
6900 37 36 22 13 57 15 12 110 -6 37 44 13 37 28 32 38 47 44 36 26 48
7000 37 32 19 13 57 13 13 111 -7 37 40 10 37 24 29 38 43 38 36 22 48
7100 37 28 35 13 57 10 13 111 -7 37 36 26 37 20 46 38 39 51 36 197
7200 37 25 10 13 577 14 112 -8 37 331 37 17 21 38 36 23 36 15 45
7300 37 224 13 574 15 113 -9 37 29 54 37 14 16 38 33 15 36 12 41
7400 37 19 18 13 571 16 113 -10 37 278 37 11 29 38 30 26 369 57
7500 37 16 50 13 56 58 16 114 -10 37 24 40 3792 38 27 56 367 32
7600 37 14 42 13 56 55 17 115 -11 37 22 32 376 54 38 25 46 365 25
7700 37 12 53 13 56 51 18 115 -12 37 20 42 3755 38 23 55 363 38
7800 37 11 23 13 56 47 18 116 -13 37 19 12 373 36 38 22 24 3629
7900 37 10 13 13 56 43 19 117 -14 37 181 372 25 38 21 12 3610
8000 379 21 13 56 39 20 118 -14 37 17 10 371 34 38 20 19 360 10
8100 378 49 13 56 35 21 118 -15 37 16 38 3712 38 19 46 35 59 38
8200 378 36 13 56 31 21 119 -16 37 16 24 370 49 38 19 32 35 59 26
8300 378 42 13 56 27 22 120 -17 37 16 30 370 55 38 19 38 35 59 32
8400 3797 13 56 22 23 121 -17 37 16 55 371 20 38 203 35 59 58
8500 379 51 13 56 17 23 121 -18 37 17 40 3724 38 20 47 360 42
8600 37 10 54 13 56 13 24 122 -19 37 18 43 3737 38 21 50 361 45
8700 37 12 17 13 568 25 123 -19 37 205 374 29 38 23 13 3637
8800 37 13 58 13 563 25 124 -20 37 21 46 376 10 38 24 54 364 48
8900 37 15 57 13 55 58 26 124 -21 37 23 46 378 10 38 26 55 366 47
9000 37 18 16 13 55 52 26 125 -22 37 265 37 10 29 38 29 14 3695
9100 37 20 53 13 55 47 27 126 -22 37 28 42 37 136 38 31 53 36 11 41
9200 37 23 49 13 55 42 28 127 -23 37 31 38 37 162 38 34 50 36 14 36
9300 37 274 13 55 36 28 128 -24 37 34 53 37 19 16 38 386 36 17 49
9400 37 30 37 13 55 30 29 129 -24 37 38 26 37 22 49 38 41 41 36 21 20
9500 37 34 28 13 55 25 29 130 -25 37 42 18 37 26 40 38 45 34 36 259
9600 37 38 37 13 55 19 30 131 -26 37 46 27 37 30 49 38 49 46 36 29 17
9700 37 435 13 55 13 30 131 -26 37 50 55 37 35 16 38 54 16 36 33 42
9800 37 47 51 13 557 31 132 -27 37 55 41 37 402 38 594 36 38 25
9900 37 52 54 13 551 31 133 -28 380 45 37 455 394 10 36 43 26
10000 37 58 15 13 54 54 32 134 -28 3866 37 50 26 399 34 36 48 45
10100 383 54 13 54 48 32 135 -29 38 11 45 37 564 39 15 16 36 54 21
10200 389 50 13 54 42 33 136 -30 38 17 42 3820 39 21 15 370 14
10300 38 164 13 54 35 33 137 -30 38 23 56 388 13 39 27 33 376 24
10400 38 22 35 13 54 29 34 138 -31 38 30 27 38 14 44 39 347 37 12 52
10500 38 29 22 13 54 22 34 139 -31 38 37 15 38 21 31 39 40 59 37 19 36
10600 38 36 27 13 54 15 35 140 -32 38 44 20 38 28 35 39 487 37 26 37
10700 38 43 48 13 549 35 142 -32 38 51 42 38 35 56 39 55 33 37 33 54
10800 38 51 26 13 542 35 143 -33 38 59 20 38 43 33 403 15 37 41 28
10900 38 59 20 13 53 55 36 144 -33 397 15 38 51 27 40 11 14 37 49 18
11000 397 31 13 53 48 36 145 -34 39 15 26 38 59 37 40 19 28 37 57 24
11100 39 15 57 13 53 41 36 146 -34 39 23 52 3983 40 280 385 46
11200 39 24 39 13 53 35 37 147 -35 39 32 35 39 16 44 40 36 47 38 14 23
11300 39 33 36 13 53 28 37 148 -35 39 41 33 39 25 41 40 45 49 38 23 16
11400 39 42 49 13 53 20 37 149 -36 39 50 47 39 34 53 40 557 38 32 24
11500 39 52 17 13 53 13 37 151 -36 400 15 39 44 21 414 41 38 41 47
11600 4020 13 536 38 152 -37 409 59 39 543 41 14 29 38 51 25
11700 40 11 58 13 52 59 38 153 -37 40 19 57 4040 41 24 32 391 17
11800 40 22 10 13 52 52 38 154 -38 40 309 40 14 11 41 34 50 39 11 24
11900 40 32 36 13 52 45 38 155 -38 40 40 36 40 24 37 41 45 22 39 21 45
12000 40 43 16 13 52 38 38 157 -38 40 51 17 40 35 17 41 569 39 32 19
12100 40 54 10 13 52 31 38 158 -39 412 12 40 46 10 4279 39 438
12200 415 17 13 52 23 39 159 -39 41 13 20 40 57 17 42 18 22 39 549
12300 41 16 38 13 52 16 39 160 -39 41 24 41 418 36 42 29 49 405 24
12400 41 28 11 13 529 39 162 -39 41 36 15 41 209 42 41 29 40 16 52
12500 41 39 58 13 522 39 163 -40 41 482 41 31 55 42 53 21 40 28 32
12600 41 51 56 13 51 55 39 164 -40 4201 41 43 52 435 26 40 40 24
12700 4247 13 51 48 39 165 -40 42 12 12 41 562 43 17 44 40 52 29
12800 42 16 29 13 51 40 39 167 -40 42 24 35 428 24 43 30 13 414 45
12900 42 293 13 51 33 39 168 -41 42 37 10 42 20 57 43 42 53 41 17 13
13000 42 41 48 13 51 26 39 169 -41 42 49 56 42 33 42 43 55 45 41 29 52
13100 42 54 44 13 51 19 38 170 -41 432 53 42 46 37 448 48 41 42 41
13200 437 50 13 51 12 38 172 -41 43 160 42 59 43 44 221 41 55 41
13300 43 217 13 515 38 173 -41 43 29 17 43 12 59 44 35 25 428 52
13400 43 34 34 13 50 58 38 174 -41 43 42 45 43 26 25 44 48 58 42 22 12
13500 43 48 10 13 50 51 38 175 -41 43 56 22 43 400 452 42 42 35 42
13600 441 56 13 50 44 38 176 -41 44 108 43 53 45 45 16 34 42 49 22
13700 44 15 51 13 50 37 38 178 -41 44 244 447 39 45 30 36 433 10
13800 44 29 54 13 50 31 37 179 -41 44 388 44 21 41 45 44 46 43 177
13900 44 445 13 50 24 37 180 -41 44 52 20 44 35 52 45 594 43 31 12
14000 44 58 25 13 50 17 37 181 -41 456 40 44 50 11 46 13 30 43 45 25
14100 45 12 51 13 50 11 37 183 -41 45 217 454 37 46 284 43 59 46
14200 45 27 26 13 504 36 184 -41 45 35 42 45 19 10 46 42 44 44 14 14
14300 45 427 13 49 57 36 185 -41 45 50 24 45 33 51 46 57 32 44 28 49
14400 45 56 54 13 49 51 36 186 -41 465 12 45 48 37 47 12 26 44 43 30
14500 46 11 48 13 49 45 35 187 -41 46 206 463 30 47 27 26 44 58 18
14600 46 26 47 13 49 38 35 188 -41 46 356 46 18 29 47 42 32 45 13 11
14700 46 41 51 13 49 32 35 190 -40 46 50 12 46 33 33 47 57 43 45 28 10
14800 46 571 13 49 26 34 191 -40 475 22 46 48 42 48 12 58 45 43 14
14900 47 12 15 13 49 20 34 192 -40 47 20 37 473 56 48 28 19 45 58 23
15000 47 27 34 13 49 14 34 193 -40 47 35 56 47 19 13 48 43 43 46 13 36
15100 47 42 56 13 498 33 194 -39 47 51 19 47 34 35 48 59 11 46 28 53
15200 47 58 22 13 492 33 195 -39 486 45 47 500 49 14 43 46 44 14
15300 48 13 51 13 48 56 32 196 -39 48 22 15 485 29 49 30 17 46 59 38
15400 48 29 23 13 48 51 32 197 -39 48 37 47 48 210 49 45 54 47 155
15500 48 44 57 13 48 45 31 198 -38 48 53 22 48 36 33 501 33 47 30 34
15600 490 33 13 48 39 31 199 -38 498 58 48 529 50 17 14 47 465
15700 49 16 10 13 48 34 31 200 -38 49 24 36 497 46 50 32 56 481 38
15800 49 31 49 13 48 29 30 201 -37 49 40 15 49 23 24 50 48 40 48 17 13
15900 49 47 28 13 48 24 30 203 -37 49 55 55 49 393 514 24 48 32 48
16000 5038 13 48 18 29 204 -37 50 11 36 49 54 42 51 208 48 48 24
16100 50 18 48 13 48 13 29 205 -36 50 27 16 50 10 22 51 35 52 4940
16200 50 34 28 13 489 28 206 -36 50 42 56 50 261 51 51 35 49 19 37
16300 50 507 13 484 28 207 -35 50 58 35 50 41 40 527 17 49 35 12
16400 515 44 13 47 59 27 208 -35 51 14 13 50 57 17 52 22 58 49 50 47
16500 51 21 21 13 47 54 27 208 -35 51 29 50 51 12 53 52 38 38 506 21
16600 51 36 55 13 47 50 26 209 -34 51 45 25 51 28 27 52 54 15 50 21 53
16700 51 52 28 13 47 46 26 210 -34 520 58 51 440 539 50 50 37 23
16800 527 58 13 47 41 25 211 -33 52 16 28 51 59 29 53 25 23 50 52 51
16900 52 23 25 13 47 37 24 212 -33 52 31 55 52 14 56 53 40 52 518 16
17000 52 38 49 13 47 33 24 213 -32 52 47 19 52 30 20 53 56 17 51 23 38
17100 52 549 13 47 29 23 214 -32 532 40 52 45 40 54 11 39 51 38 57
17200 539 26 13 47 25 23 215 -32 53 17 56 530 56 54 26 57 51 54 12
17300 53 24 38 13 47 21 22 216 -31 53 339 53 169 54 42 10 529 24
17400 53 39 45 13 47 18 22 217 -31 53 48 16 53 31 16 54 57 18 52 24 31
17500 53 54 48 13 47 14 21 218 -30 543 19 53 46 19 55 12 22 52 39 33
17600 549 46 13 47 11 21 219 -30 54 18 17 541 17 55 27 19 52 54 31
17700 54 24 38 13 477 20 220 -29 54 339 54 169 55 42 11 539 23
17800 54 39 25 13 474 20 221 -29 54 47 56 54 30 55 55 56 57 53 24 10
17900 54 545 13 471 19 222 -28 552 36 54 45 36 56 11 37 53 38 51
18000 558 39 13 46 58 18 222 -28 55 17 10 550 10 56 26 10 53 53 26
-17900 55 237 13 46 55 18 223 -27 55 31 38 55 14 38 56 40 37 547 55
-17800 55 37 28 13 46 52 17 224 -27 55 45 58 55 28 59 56 54 56 54 22 17
-17700 55 51 41 13 46 50 17 225 -26 560 11 55 43 13 5797 54 36 32
-17600 565 47 13 46 47 16 226 -26 56 14 17 55 57 19 57 23 12 54 50 40
-17500 56 19 46 13 46 45 16 227 -25 56 28 16 56 11 18 57 378 554 41
-17400 56 33 37 13 46 42 15 228 -25 56 426 56 259 57 50 56 55 18 34
-17300 56 47 19 13 46 40 14 229 -24 56 55 49 56 38 52 584 36 55 32 20
-17200 570 54 13 46 38 14 230 -24 579 23 56 52 27 58 187 55 45 57
-17100 57 14 20 13 46 36 13 230 -23 57 22 48 575 53 58 31 30 55 59 26
-17000 57 27 37 13 46 34 13 231 -22 57 365 57 19 11 58 44 43 56 12 47
-16900 57 40 46 13 46 32 12 232 -22 57 49 13 57 32 20 58 57 48 56 25 59
-16800 57 53 45 13 46 30 12 233 -21 582 12 57 45 19 59 10 43 56 392
-16700 586 35 13 46 28 11 234 -21 58 152 57 58 10 59 23 29 56 51 56
-16600 58 19 16 13 46 27 11 235 -20 58 27 42 58 10 51 59 365 574 41
-16500 58 31 47 13 46 25 10 236 -20 58 40 13 58 23 23 59 48 31 57 17 16
-16400 58 449 13 46 24 9 236 -19 58 52 34 58 35 45 600 48 57 29 42
-16300 58 56 20 13 46 22 9 237 -19 594 45 58 47 57 60 12 55 57 41 59
-16200 598 22 13 46 21 8 238 -18 59 16 46 5900 60 24 51 57 546
-16100 59 20 14 13 46 20 8 239 -18 59 28 37 59 11 52 60 36 37 5862
-16000 59 31 55 13 46 19 7 240 -17 59 40 18 59 23 34 60 48 13 58 17 49
-15900 59 43 26 13 46 18 7 241 -17 59 51 49 59 356 60 59 38 58 29 26
-15800 59 54 47 13 46 17 6 242 -16 6039 59 46 27 61 10 53 58 40 52
-15700 605 58 13 46 16 6 243 -16 60 14 19 59 57 38 61 21 57 58 528
-15600 60 16 57 13 46 15 5 243 -15 60 25 18 608 38 61 32 50 .. .. ..
-15500 60 27 46 13 46 15 5 244 -15 60 366 60 19 28 61 43 33 .. .. ..
-15400 60 38 25 13 46 14 4 245 -14 60 46 44 60 307 61 545 .. .. ..
-15300 60 48 52 13 46 13 4 246 -14 60 57 10 60 40 35 624 26 .. .. ..
-15200 60 599 13 46 13 3 247 -13 617 26 60 50 53 62 14 36 .. .. ..
-15100 619 14 13 46 13 3 248 -13 61 17 31 610 59 62 24 34 .. .. ..
-15000 61 199 13 46 12 2 249 -12 61 27 25 61 10 54 62 34 22 .. .. ..
-14900 61 28 53 13 46 12 2 250 -12 61 378 61 20 39 62 43 59 .. .. ..
-14800 61 38 25 13 46 12 1 250 -11 61 46 40 61 30 12 62 53 25 .. .. ..
-14700 61 47 47 13 46 12 1 251 -11 61 561 61 39 35 632 39 .. .. ..
-14600 61 56 58 13 46 12 0 252 -10 625 11 61 48 46 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 21.0
Data for the target star
------------------------
* name: HIP 112168
* constellation : Aquarius
* J2000 position with proper motionto date of event
RA: 22 43 03.4248DE: -08 18 41.230
* position source: mpos:HIP2 pm:HIP2 plx:HIP2
* standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .020, .016 )
* V mag : 6.8
* B mag : 6.6
* Diameter : 0
* remarks:
Data for the minor planet
-------------------------
* general information:
(number) name: (2753) Duncan
approx. diameter : 18
approx. diameter ["]: .013
distance from Earth : 1.86200
* orbital information:
orbit source: Preston
date of fit: 2010 Jul 20
source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys)
number of used observations: 831
number of rejected observations: 21
time covered by the observations: 1954 Aug 27 - 2009 Jun 30
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.074, 0.047, 61°
remarks:
* orbital elements for (2753) Duncan :
Mean anomaly = 238.77067494 deg
Arg. of pericenter = 123.92899329 deg
Long. of node = 344.69876383 deg
Inclination = 6.87580743 deg
Eccentricity = 0.03782688
Semimajor axis = 2.79271768 AU
Perihelion dist = 2.68707788 AU
Mag: H = 12.25,G = 0.15
Epoch of elements: MJD 55454.57800000 TDT
(2010 Sep 15.578)
------ occelmnt file for OccultBEGIN -----------------------------------
2010 Sep 15
2753 Duncan
13h 51.9m UT
6.8 22 433.425- 8 18 41.23HIP 112168 6.6
16.3 18 1.5 1.862 -2.052 -6.28
138.3750-8.309 -29.16 2.92
13.8644 -0.156310.76262 -6.45237 -1.331290.001240.00052
2000 237.8038692010 911.00000123.928993344.6987646.8758070.03782688 2.7927177 2.687077912.3 5.00.15
RATE 2.1118520 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
Meas0.076 0.049 634.99 0.053 0 0-2 0 055398.0020100915_112168
------ occelmnt file for OccultEND -----------------------------------
============================================
Calculator (s): Steve Preston
Date of update: 2010 Jul 20, 22:58 UT
Steve Preston
7640 NE 32nd St
Medina, WA 98039
425-688-9965
mailto: stevepr@acm.org 被掩星6.8等，很亮了啊。 赞啊~~加油~~牧夫~~加油~~赞啊~~牧夫~~赞啊~~加油~~牧夫~~加油~~赞啊~~牧夫~~赞啊~~
::luguo::::004::::luguo::::004::::luguo::::004::::luguo::::sajiao::::yun2::::bye::yct56.gifyct53.gifyct51.gif::003::::0015::::0020::::0022::::0023::::0024::::0014::yct27.gifyct54.gifyct01.gifyct36.gifyct55.gifyct63.gifyct30.gifyct61.gifyct26.gifyct41.gifyct44.gifyct38.gifyct52.gifyct39.gifyct62.gifyct29.gif5092D.GIFyct22.gifyct37.gifyct58.gifyct57.gifyct60.gifyct34.gifyct33.gifyct46.gifyct24.gifyct32.gifyct02.gifyct40.gifyct50.gifyct59.gifyct31.gifyct42.gifyct53.gif::0023::::0022::::0020::yct43.gif::bye::
页:
[1]