73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann碎片B已经确认，5月中可达8等
据MPEC 2006-B27 公报回归的73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann碎片B已多次被观测到，根据目前的亮度预测在今年5月中旬亮度可到8等左右，近地点比母体彗星距离还要接近地球200万公里。
以下是有关预报：
Ephemeris:
73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann (B)
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase Mag.
2006 01 15 12 53.96 +10 42.8 1.542 2.044 105.9 27.6 18.0
2006 01 20 13 00.91 +10 41.0 1.447 1.999 109.2 27.7 17.8
2006 01 25 13 07.80 +10 43.4 1.353 1.953 112.4 27.8 17.6
2006 01 30 13 14.60 +10 50.2 1.262 1.908 115.6 27.7 17.3
2006 02 04 13 21.31 +11 01.9 1.173 1.862 118.9 27.6 17.0
2006 02 09 13 27.92 +11 18.8 1.088 1.815 122.0 27.4 16.8
2006 02 14 13 34.42 +11 41.2 1.005 1.769 125.2 27.2 16.5
2006 02 19 13 40.80 +12 09.7 0.925 1.722 128.2 26.8 16.2
2006 02 24 13 47.06 +12 44.6 0.849 1.674 131.1 26.4 15.9
2006 03 01 13 53.20 +13 26.3 0.775 1.627 133.9 26.0 15.6
2006 03 06 13 59.20 +14 15.2 0.705 1.580 136.5 25.6 15.2
2006 03 11 14 05.12 +15 11.3 0.639 1.533 138.8 25.3 14.9
2006 03 16 14 10.99 +16 15.0 0.576 1.486 140.7 25.1 14.5
2006 03 21 14 16.87 +17 26.6 0.516 1.439 142.2 25.1 14.1
2006 03 26 14 22.88 +18 46.6 0.459 1.392 143.1 25.5 13.7
2006 03 31 14 29.16 +20 15.3 0.406 1.346 143.3 26.3 13.3
2006 04 05 14 36.02 +21 53.0 0.355 1.301 142.8 27.7 12.9
2006 04 10 14 43.94 +23 41.2 0.307 1.257 141.6 29.7 12.4
2006 04 15 14 53.69 +25 42.6 0.261 1.214 139.5 32.5 11.9
2006 04 20 15 06.63 +28 02.4 0.218 1.172 136.5 36.2 11.4
2006 04 25 15 25.37 +30 49.6 0.177 1.133 132.5 40.9 10.8
2006 04 30 15 55.59 +34 16.6 0.138 1.095 126.9 47.4 10.1
2006 05 05 16 51.13 +38 23.2 0.103 1.061 118.2 56.9 9.3
2006 05 10 18 42.01 +40 36.0 0.0759 1.030 103.4 72.5 8.5
2006 05 15 21 23.29 +31 00.5 0.0671 1.003 81.1 95.1
8.1
母体彗星预报：
Date TT R. A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. Phase m1 m2
2005 12 16 12 12.41 +11 52.2 2.144 2.297 86.1 25.3 19.1 21.1
2005 12 21 12 19.70 +11 31.9 2.040 2.254 89.3 25.9 18.8 21.0
2005 12 26 12 26.97 +11 13.7 1.938 2.211 92.5 26.4 18.6 20.9
2005 12 31 12 34.21 +10 58.1 1.836 2.168 95.7 26.8 18.4 20.7
2006 01 05 12 41.43 +10 45.2 1.736 2.124 99.0 27.2 18.1 20.6
2006 01 10 12 48.61 +10 35.4 1.637 2.079 102.2 27.5 17.8 20.4
2006 01 15 12 55.76 +10 28.8 1.539 2.035 105.4 27.8 17.6 20.2
2006 01 20 13 02.87 +10 25.8 1.444 1.990 108.6 27.9 17.3 20.0
2006 01 25 13 09.94 +10 26.7 1.350 1.944 111.8 28.0 17.0 19.8
2006 01 30 13 16.94 +10 32.0 1.259 1.898 115.0 28.0 16.7 19.6
2006 02 04 13 23.87 +10 42.1 1.170 1.852 118.2 28.0 16.4 19.4
2006 02 09 13 30.73 +10 57.1 1.085 1.806 121.3 27.8 16.0 19.2
2006 02 14 13 37.53 +11 17.4 1.002 1.759 124.3 27.6 15.7 19.0
2006 02 19 13 44.26 +11 43.5 0.922 1.712 127.3 27.3 15.3 18.7
2006 02 24 13 50.92 +12 15.8 0.845 1.665 130.2 27.0 15.0 18.5
2006 03 01 13 57.52 +12 54.6 0.772 1.618 132.9 26.7 14.6 18.2
2006 03 06 14 04.07 +13 40.1 0.701 1.571 135.4 26.3 14.2 17.9
2006 03 11 14 10.63 +14 32.6 0.635 1.523 137.6 26.1 13.8 17.6
2006 03 16 14 17.28 +15 32.2 0.571 1.476 139.5 26.0 13.3 17.3
2006 03 21 14 24.11 +16 39.4 0.511 1.429 140.9 26.1 12.9 17.0
2006 03 26 14 31.26 +17 54.3 0.454 1.383 141.8 26.5 12.4 16.7
2006 03 31 14 38.98 +19 17.4 0.400 1.337 142.0 27.4 11.9 16.4
2006 04 05 14 47.66 +20 49.0 0.349 1.292 141.6 28.8 11.4 16.0
2006 04 10 14 57.94 +22 29.9 0.300 1.248 140.4 30.8 10.8 15.7
2006 04 15 15 10.90 +24 22.2 0.255 1.205 138.3 33.6 10.2 15.3
2006 04 20 15 28.39 +26 29.5 0.211 1.164 135.3 37.4 9.6 15.0
2006 04 25 15 53.93 +28 55.6 0.170 1.125 131.0 42.4 8.9 14.6
2006 04 30 16 34.81 +31 37.0 0.133 1.088 124.7 49.6 8.2 14.2
2006 05 05 17 45.71 +33 41.0 0.101 1.055 114.5 60.5 7.4 13.8
2006 05 10 19 42.02 +31 07.6 0.0814 1.024 98.0 77.5 6.7 13.8
2006 05 15 21 49.81 +19 43.4 0.0818 0.998 78.5 96.9 6.5 14.5
2006 05 20 23 15.92 +07 19.2 0.102 0.976 66.5 108.0 6.9 15.5
2006 05 25 00 06.01 -00 35.4 0.134 0.958 62.4 110.5 7.4 16.2
2006 05 30 00 37.22 -05 09.8 0.170 0.946 62.2 108.6 7.8 16.6
2006 06 04 00 58.75 -07 51.5 0.209 0.940 63.5 105.0 8.2 16.8
2006 06 09 01 14.99 -09 28.6 0.248 0.940 65.5 100.7 8.6 17.0
2006 06 14 01 28.08 -10 26.8 0.286 0.945 67.7 96.0 8.9 17.1
2006 06 19 01 39.14 -11 01.0 0.324 0.956 70.1 91.3 9.3 17.2
2006 06 24 01 48.73 -11 20.7 0.360 0.972 72.7 86.6 9.6 17.3
2006 06 29 01 57.10 -11 32.1 0.394 0.993 75.4 82.0 9.9 17.3
2006 07 04 02 04.42 -11 39.1 0.426 1.019 78.2 77.6 10.3 17.4
2006 07 09 02 10.73 -11 44.7 0.455 1.049 81.3 73.3 10.6 17.5
2006 07 14 02 16.06 -11 51.0 0.481 1.082 84.5 69.2 10.9 17.5
2006 07 19 02 20.36 -11 59.7 0.505 1.118 87.9 65.3 11.2 17.6
2006 07 24 02 23.56 -12 11.9 0.526 1.157 91.6 61.4 11.6 17.6
2006 07 29 02 25.59 -12 28.2 0.545 1.198 95.5 57.6 11.9 17.6
2006 08 03 02 26.38 -12 48.7 0.561 1.240 99.7 53.8 12.1 17.7
2006 08 08 02 25.87 -13 13.2 0.576 1.284 104.3 50.0 12.4 17.7
2006 08 13 02 24.03 -13 41.2 0.590 1.329 109.0 46.1 12.7 17.7
2006 08 18 02 20.83 -14 12.1 0.604 1.374 114.1 42.2 13.0 17.7
2006 08 23 02 16.24 -14 44.7 0.618 1.421 119.4 38.3 13.2 17.8
2006 08 28 02 10.32 -15 17.4 0.633 1.468 125.0 34.3 13.5 17.8
2006 09 02 02 03.19 -15 48.2 0.649 1.515 130.7 30.3 13.8 17.8
2006 09 07 01 55.05 -16 15.3 0.669 1.562 136.4 26.4 14.0 17.8
2006 09 12 01 46.12 -16 36.9 0.692 1.609 142.0 22.6 14.3 17.8
2006 09 17 01 36.69 -16 51.4 0.719 1.656 147.4 19.1 14.6 17.8
2006 09 22 01 27.07 -16 57.9 0.750 1.703 152.1 16.0 14.8 17.9
2006 09 27 01 17.60 -16 55.5 0.787 1.750 155.7 13.6 15.1 18.0
2006 10 02 01 08.57 -16 44.2 0.830 1.797 157.9 12.1 15.4 18.1
2006 10 07 01 00.24 -16 24.7 0.878 1.844 158.1 11.7 15.7 18.3
2006 10 12 00 52.78 -15 57.8 0.932 1.890 156.5 12.2 16.0 18.5
2006 10 17 00 46.30 -15 24.6 0.992 1.936 153.6 13.3 16.3 18.7
2006 10 22 00 40.87 -14 46.2 1.057 1.981 149.8 14.7 16.6 18.9
2006 10 27 00 36.49 -14 03.6 1.127 2.026 145.5 16.1 16.9 19.2
2006 11 01 00 33.14 -13 17.8 1.202 2.071 141.1 17.5 17.1 19.4
2006 11 06 00 30.77 -12 29.5 1.282 2.115 136.6 18.8 17.4 19.6
2006 11 11 00 29.30 -11 39.6 1.366 2.159 132.1 19.9 17.7 19.8
2006 11 16 00 28.66 -10 48.5 1.454 2.203 127.7 20.8 18.0 20.1
2006 11 21 00 28.78 -09 56.5 1.546 2.246 123.3 21.6 18.2 20.3
2006 11 26 00 29.58 -09 04.0 1.641 2.289 119.0 22.2 18.5 20.4
2006 12 01 00 31.00 -08 11.2 1.738 2.331 114.8 22.6 18.7 20.6
2006 12 06 00 32.96 -07 18.4 1.838 2.373 110.7 22.9 18.9 20.8
2006 12 11 00 35.41 -06 25.7 1.940 2.414 106.6 23.0 19.2 20.9
2006 12 16 00 38.29 -05 33.1 2.044 2.455 102.7 23.0 19.4 21.1
2006 12 21 00 41.55 -04 40.9 2.149 2.495 98.7 22.9 19.6 21.2
2006 12 26 00 45.17 -03 48.9 2.255 2.535 94.9 22.7 19.8 21.4
2006 12 31 00 49.08 -02 57.3 2.362 2.575 91.1 22.4 20.0 21.5
2007 01 05 00 53.27 -02 06.2 2.469 2.614 87.3 22.1 20.2 21.6
2007 01 10 00 57.70 -01 15.7 2.576 2.653 83.6 21.6 20.4 21.7
2007 01 15 01 02.33 -00 25.6 2.683 2.691 79.9 21.1 20.6 21.8
2007 01 20 01 07.17 +00 23.8 2.790 2.729 76.3 20.5 20.8 21.9 要是95年,73P没分裂,那该多好啊!今年可就......不过,武仙座流星雨值得期待(非今年),最好能像比拉...... ^^ 5月16日冲日的亮度应该是5.6等吧！ 亮度变化真快 :shock: 华哥你现在也...... ^^
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