2011年象限仪流星雨预报（数据来自IMO）
活动时间：2010.12.28~2011.1.12
极大时间：2011.1.4.01时10分UT（UT即世界时）
ZHR=120（可能在60~200之间变化）
这次流星雨极大值预报为120颗/小时，与2010年12月14日的双子座流星雨相当。而10年的双子极大时，我国南方多是阴雨天气，无法观看双子座流星雨，此次象限仪流星雨，也许可以给我们南方人民以安慰。
此次流星雨预测的极大值时间是北京时间4日9点，所以我国最好的观测时间应该是在1月4日凌晨。而2011.1.4适逢农历十二月初一，流星雨观测将不受月光影响，观测条件理想（不考虑天气和污染）。象限仪流星雨辐射点位于牧夫座北端与天龙座、武仙座交界处（如附图所示）。广州地区1月4日凌晨1点50分左右，辐射点将升上地平线，随后缓缓升高。所以，对于广州的朋友们来说，1月4日凌晨将是观看这次流星雨的最好时间。
下载 (1.24 MB)
2010-12-18 19:33
这次极大值的预报是IMO根据多年来的观测数据分析得出的，有较高的可靠性。但有几点必须注意的：象限仪流星雨的极大时间很短，只有一、两个小时（这次极大预报是在北京时间9点，所以广州应该不能看到极大），且它的的ZHR不如双子座流星雨稳定，可以说是一个很飘忽的流星雨，所以观测者应做好心理准备；象限仪流星雨发生时间正值冬季，又是在凌晨，天气寒冷，应注意保暖和及时补充能量。
流星雨的观测：
流星雨的观测无需器材，肉眼观测最好。因为流星可能出现在天空中的任何一个位置，而使用望远镜的话会大大减小我们的视野。
看流星雨时，不用说看着流星雨辐射点，你只要躺着，静静的看着天顶就可以了。注意不要盯着某小片区域看。
如何判断你看到的是象限仪流星雨而不是普通流星呢？！很简单！当你看到流星划过天空时，将它的轨迹反向延长。若延长线过象限仪流星雨的辐射点，那就能认为它是属于这个流星雨的流星。反之，则是一颗偶发流星（同时有其他流星雨活动的情况除外）。
象限仪流星雨小背景：
象限仪，在如今的星图中，你是无法找到这个星座的。这是一个十九世纪的星座，位置在如今的牧夫座、天龙座和武仙座之间。因为象限仪流星雨的辐射点在牧夫座之内，为了将这个流星雨和每年6、7月份的牧夫座流星雨区别开来，所以就沿用象限仪这个旧名。
下面是国际流星组织（IMO）的预报：
Quadrantids (QUA)
Active: December 28 – January 12; Maximum: January 4, 01h10m UT (λ⊙ = 283.16°);
ZHR = 120 (can vary ～ 60–200);
Radiant: α = 230°, δ = +49°;
V∞ = 41 km/s; r = 2.1 at maximum, but variable;
TFC: α = 242°, δ = +75° and α = 198°, δ = +40° (β > 40° N).
IFC: before 0h local time α = 150°, δ = +70°; after 0h local time α = 180°, δ = +40° and
α = 240°, δ = +70° (β > 40° N).
New Moon just eight hours after the predicted Quadrantid maximum creates ideal circumstances for observing the shower from northern hemisphere sites this year. From many such places, the shower's radiant is circumpolar, in northern Bo?tes, attaining a useful elevation only after local midnight, and rising higher in the sky towards morning twilight. This means places at European longitudes east to those of central Asia should be best-placed to record what happens.
However, computations by Jérémie Vaubaillon have suggested the peak could happen at a somewhat different time between roughly 21h UT on January 3 to 06h UT on January 4 (see the diagram on HMO p. 129). The occasional long-pathed shower meteor might be seen from southern hemisphere sites around dawn, but sensible Quadrantid watching cannot be carried out from such places.
The maximum timing above is based on the best-observed return of the shower ever analysed, from IMO 1992 data, confirmed by radio results in most years since 1996. The peak itself is normally short-lived, and can be easily missed in just a few hours of poor northern-winter weather, which may be why the ZHR level apparently fluctuates from year to year, but some genuine variability is probably present too. For instance, visual ZHRs in 2009 persisted for almost fourteen hours at close to their best, with the predicted maximum time falling around an hour or two after the mid-point of this extended interval. An added level of complexity comes from the fact mass-sorting of particles across the meteoroid stream may make fainter objects (radio and telescopic meteors) reach maximum up to 14 hours before the brighter (visual and photographic) ones, so observers should be alert throughout the shower. A few, but apparently not all, years since 2000 seem to have produced a, primarily radio, maximum following the main visual one by some 9–12 hours. Visual confirmation of any repeat of such activity would be welcomed.
VID data recently indicated the QUA may be active weakly for longer than previous visual estimates had inferred, perhaps from December 28 to January 12, compared to just January 1–10 visually (HMO). It is not certain visual observers will be able to follow the shower for so long as yet, as the early and late activity may be too low to be separated from the visual sporadic background. Past observations have suggested the QUA radiant is diffuse away from the maximum too, contracting notably during the peak itself, although this may be a result of the very low activity outside the hours near maximum. Still-imaging and video observations would be particularly welcomed by those investigating this topic, using the IFCs and TFCs given above, along with telescopic results.
转载自南国飘香http://bbs.gdut.edu.cn/ngpxbbs/viewthread.php?tid=335932
各位多多参考下，本帖（LZ）转自SKYMAP模拟，或许会有误，请各位核实 |
置顶卡
变色卡
千斤顶
显身卡
