C/2019 Y4 ATLAS 综合均衡前瞻+跟踪贴（参照C/2006P1）
本帖最后由 suhuasky 于 2020-3-8 11:43 编辑C/2006 P1 ( McNaught )http://bbs.imufu.cn/thread-60357-1-1.html
C/2006 P1 ( McNaught )
Orbital ElementsEpoch 2007 Jan. 20.0 TT = JDT 2454120.5T 2007 Jan. 12.79875 TT MPCq 0.1707327 (2000.0) P Qz-0.0001070 Peri.155.97560 +0.12688552 -0.17387931 +/-0.0000025 Node 267.41491 +0.67529017 +0.73627680e 1.0000183 Incl. 77.83725 +0.72655575 -0.65395907From 320 observations 2006 Aug. 7-2007 July 11, mean residual 0".4.
C/2019 Y4 ( ATLAS )
Orbital ElementsEpoch 2020 May 31.0 TT = JDT 2459000.5T 2020 May 31.04374 TT Bellq 0.2529776 (2000.0) P Qz+0.0031781 Peri.177.39929 +0.48075700 +0.62706636 +/-0.0000780 Node 120.57828 -0.81680110 +0.57448610e 0.9991960 Incl. 45.39085 -0.31891797 -0.52607366From 201 observations 2019 Dec. 28-2020 Feb. 3, mean residual 0".5.
近日点相差0.08AU
C/2006 P1 ( McNaught )近日点前3个月亮度12等，C/2019 Y4 ( ATLAS )近日点前3个月亮度12.5-13等,C/2006 P1 ( McNaught )最大亮度-6等，综合近日距和亮度数据，C/2019 Y4 ( ATLAS )的最大亮度谨慎预期为-1到-4等之间。
竟然会这么亮，不过那时候离太阳太近应该不好拍了吧 拟合均值曲线已经超过12等，比原始预报亮了3等以上
记忆定格 发表于 2020-3-1 18:27
竟然会这么亮，不过那时候离太阳太近应该不好拍了吧
过近日点前（五月上中旬）应该还是有机会的
这个比较不错。北半球的爱好者寂寞了20多年，很期待Y4爆发啊！ 关于这颗彗星，有这么说的
C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS). In mid-February this comet was observed to be brightening much more rapidly than anticipated. This comet will reach perihelion on May 30. It is predicted to reach maximum brightness in late May, when it may be a naked-eye object. This comet may have the potential to be a very bright naked eye object. Or not. Such is the nature of comets. But if we are lucky, we may be in for a treat.
吉田调高彗星亮度预报了：
Brightening very rapidly. Now it is very bright as 11.5 mag (Feb. 28, Michael Jager). It moves along the same orbit as C/1844 Y1 (Great Comet). It approaches to Sun down to 0.25 a.u. on May 30. It is expected to brighten up to 1 mag. In the Northern Hemisphere, it stays observable in excellent condition until mid May when it brightens up to 5 mag. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is not observable until June.
均衡对比历史彗星后计算的星历表
Ephemeris of comet C/2019 Y4 ATLAS日期Top R.A.Top DecR (AU)距离El ? Mag
04 三月 202010h 51m 29.9s+60°17' 12"1.95301.1966126.111.0
05 三月 202010h 47m 26.8s+60°50' 18"1.93681.1880125.110.9
06 三月 202010h 43m 12.1s+61°22' 46"1.92051.1796124.110.8
07 三月 202010h 38m 45.6s+61°54' 33"1.90421.1716123.110.8
08 三月 202010h 34m 07.0s+62°25' 34"1.88781.1639122.010.7
09 三月 202010h 29m 16.2s+62°55' 46"1.87131.1564120.910.6
10 三月 202010h 24m 12.9s+63°25' 03"1.85481.1492119.810.6
11 三月 202010h 18m 57.1s+63°53' 22"1.83821.1423118.610.5
12 三月 202010h 13m 28.8s+64°20' 39"1.82151.1357117.510.4
13 三月 202010h 07m 48.0s+64°46' 49"1.80481.1293116.310.4
14 三月 202010h 01m 55.1s+65°11' 48"1.78801.1232115.110.3
15 三月 202009h 55m 50.1s+65°35' 32"1.77121.1173113.910.2
16 三月 202009h 49m 33.4s+65°57' 58"1.75431.1116112.710.2
17 三月 202009h 43m 05.6s+66°19' 01"1.73731.1061111.410.1
18 三月 202009h 36m 27.3s+66°38' 40"1.72021.1009110.210.0
19 三月 202009h 29m 39.1s+66°56' 50"1.70311.0958108.99.9
20 三月 202009h 22m 41.8s+67°13' 29"1.68591.0910107.79.9
21 三月 202009h 15m 36.5s+67°28' 35"1.66861.0863106.49.8
22 三月 202009h 08m 24.1s+67°42' 06"1.65131.0818105.29.7
23 三月 202009h 01m 05.7s+67°54' 01"1.63391.0775103.99.7
24 三月 202008h 53m 42.6s+68°04' 19"1.61641.0733102.69.6
25 三月 202008h 46m 16.0s+68°13' 00"1.59881.0693101.39.5
26 三月 202008h 38m 47.1s+68°20' 04"1.58111.0654100.09.4
27 三月 202008h 31m 17.4s+68°25' 32"1.56341.061698.79.3
28 三月 202008h 23m 48.0s+68°29' 24"1.54561.057997.49.3
29 三月 202008h 16m 20.3s+68°31' 43"1.52771.054396.29.2
30 三月 202008h 08m 55.3s+68°32' 30"1.50971.050894.99.1
31 三月 202008h 01m 34.4s+68°31' 49"1.49161.047493.69.0
01 四月 202007h 54m 18.6s+68°29' 41"1.47351.044092.38.9
02 四月 202007h 47m 08.7s+68°26' 09"1.45521.040791.08.9
03 四月 202007h 40m 05.6s+68°21' 18"1.43691.037489.78.8
04 四月 202007h 33m 10.2s+68°15' 09"1.41851.034188.48.7
05 四月 202007h 26m 22.9s+68°07' 47"1.39991.030987.18.6
06 四月 202007h 19m 44.3s+67°59' 15"1.38131.027785.88.5
07 四月 202007h 13m 14.8s+67°49' 37"1.36261.024484.68.4
08 四月 202007h 06m 54.7s+67°38' 56"1.34381.021283.38.3
09 四月 202007h 00m 44.1s+67°27' 14"1.32481.017982.08.3
10 四月 202006h 54m 43.2s+67°14' 36"1.30581.014680.78.2
11 四月 202006h 48m 52.0s+67°01' 04"1.28671.011279.48.1
12 四月 202006h 43m 10.3s+66°46' 41"1.26741.007878.28.0
13 四月 202006h 37m 38.1s+66°31' 29"1.24811.004476.97.9
14 四月 202006h 32m 15.2s+66°15' 32"1.22861.000875.67.8
15 四月 202006h 27m 01.2s+65°58' 52"1.20900.997274.47.7
16 四月 202006h 21m 55.9s+65°41' 30"1.18930.993573.17.5
17 四月 202006h 16m 58.8s+65°23' 27"1.16950.989771.87.4
18 四月 202006h 12m 09.6s+65°04' 46"1.14950.985870.67.3
19 四月 202006h 07m 27.9s+64°45' 27"1.12950.981769.37.2
20 四月 202006h 02m 53.2s+64°25' 31"1.10930.977668.07.1
21 四月 202005h 58m 25.0s+64°04' 59"1.08890.973366.87.0
22 四月 202005h 54m 02.8s+63°43' 49"1.06850.968865.56.8
23 四月 202005h 49m 46.1s+63°22' 02"1.04790.964264.26.7
24 四月 202005h 45m 34.3s+62°59' 37"1.02710.959563.06.6
25 四月 202005h 41m 27.1s+62°36' 33"1.00620.954561.76.4
26 四月 202005h 37m 23.7s+62°12' 47"0.98520.949560.46.3
27 四月 202005h 33m 23.7s+61°48' 17"0.96400.944259.16.2
28 四月 202005h 29m 26.5s+61°23' 01"0.94270.938857.86.0
29 四月 202005h 25m 31.7s+60°56' 55"0.92120.933156.55.8
30 四月 202005h 21m 38.5s+60°29' 55"0.89960.927355.25.7
01 五月 202005h 17m 46.7s+60°01' 56"0.87780.921353.95.5
02 五月 202005h 13m 55.5s+59°32' 52"0.85580.915152.65.4
03 五月 202005h 10m 04.6s+59°02' 37"0.83370.908851.25.2
04 五月 202005h 06m 13.4s+58°31' 03"0.81140.902249.95.0
05 五月 202005h 02m 21.5s+57°58' 03"0.78890.895548.54.8
06 五月 202004h 58m 28.5s+57°23' 26"0.76620.888647.14.6
07 五月 202004h 54m 34.0s+56°47' 03"0.74340.881545.74.4
08 五月 202004h 50m 37.6s+56°08' 39"0.72040.874344.34.2
09 五月 202004h 46m 39.1s+55°28' 03"0.69730.867042.84.0
10 五月 202004h 42m 38.1s+54°44' 59"0.67390.859541.33.8
11 五月 202004h 38m 34.5s+53°59' 08"0.65050.852039.83.5
12 五月 202004h 34m 28.2s+53°10' 13"0.62680.844438.23.3
13 五月 202004h 30m 19.3s+52°17' 51"0.60300.836836.63.0
14 五月 202004h 26m 07.8s+51°21' 39"0.57910.829335.02.8
15 五月 202004h 21m 54.1s+50°21' 10"0.55500.821933.32.5
16 五月 202004h 17m 38.6s+49°15' 54"0.53090.814631.52.2
17 五月 202004h 13m 22.3s+48°05' 21"0.50670.807729.81.9
18 五月 202004h 09m 06.0s+46°48' 55"0.48250.801127.91.6
19 五月 202004h 04m 51.2s+45°26' 03"0.45840.795126.01.3
20 五月 202004h 00m 39.8s+43°56' 07"0.43440.789924.10.9
21 五月 202003h 56m 34.2s+42°18' 34"0.41070.785622.20.6
22 五月 202003h 52m 37.5s+40°32' 53"0.38740.782420.20.2
23 五月 202003h 48m 53.6s+38°38' 41"0.36470.780818.2-0.2
24 五月 202003h 45m 27.2s+36°35' 52"0.34280.781116.3-0.5
25 五月 202003h 42m 24.1s+34°24' 40"0.32210.783714.6-0.9
26 五月 202003h 39m 51.0s+32°05' 53"0.30310.789013.1-1.3
27 五月 202003h 37m 55.3s+29°41' 00"0.28620.797512.0-1.6
28 五月 202003h 36m 44.9s+27°12' 25"0.27200.809711.4-1.9
29 五月 202003h 36m 26.6s+24°43' 19"0.26130.825811.4-2.1
30 五月 202003h 37m 05.4s+22°17' 35"0.25460.846011.9-2.2
31 五月 202003h 38m 42.5s+19°59' 11"0.25230.869912.7-2.2
01 六月 202003h 41m 14.9s+17°51' 31"0.25460.897113.6-2.0
02 六月 202003h 44m 35.3s+15°56' 52"0.26140.926814.6-1.8
03 六月 202003h 48m 33.9s+14°16' 09"0.27220.958315.5-1.5
04 六月 202003h 53m 00.5s+12°49' 03"0.28650.990916.4-1.1
05 六月 202003h 57m 45.4s+11°34' 27"0.30341.023917.1-0.7
06 六月 202004h 02m 40.8s+10°30' 52"0.32251.056917.8-0.3
07 六月 202004h 07m 40.8s+09°36' 43"0.34321.089618.30.2
08 六月 202004h 12m 40.9s+08°50' 31"0.36511.121918.80.6
09 六月 202004h 17m 38.2s+08°10' 57"0.38781.153719.31.1
10 六月 202004h 22m 30.7s+07°36' 55"0.41121.184819.71.5
11 六月 202004h 27m 17.0s+07°07' 29"0.43491.215320.01.9
用Comet for Windows把目前所知的预测做了个比较 看样子，有很大希望亮于1星等。近几年还没出现过亮于1星等的可视彗星吧 本帖最后由 suhuasky 于 2020-3-7 23:36 编辑
再附上一颗条件相似的彗星
C/1975 V1 (West)近日距0.2AU，最大亮度-3
近日点前3个月亮度也大致在12等左右
suhuasky 发表于 2020-3-7 23:07
再附上一颗条件相似的彗星
C/1975 V1 (West)近日距0.2AU，最大亮度-3
近日点前3个月亮度也大致在12等左右
能达到West这效果就相当好了，漂亮的大尾巴
转赵经远：从推上看到的1844大彗星（C/2019 Y4 ATLAS的孪生兄弟）拟合光变曲线，观测数据比较少，不一定准 。
有点意思，十分期待！
Comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS)近期亮度增加到10等左右
看着它越来越亮，心中有种说不出的兴奋 有没有之后的运行轨迹图，目前是在大熊座还是蛮适合的北半球观测的。 本帖最后由 1790765991 于 2020-3-13 05:24 编辑
woaichijuzi 发表于 2020-3-12 18:10
有没有之后的运行轨迹图，目前是在大熊座还是蛮适合的北半球观测的。
如图 近两三天从10进入9了
C/2019 Y4光变曲线。