有更新 Mikiya Sato的狮子座流星雨预报
Dear all,I am Mikiya Sato.
I opened the web of my prediction of Leonids 2009.
http://fas.kaicho.net/tenshow/meteor/leo2009/leo2009.htm
Mainly, three trails will encounter the earth on Nov 17.
The maximum is at about 21:30, but it is uncertain.
A total maximum of ZHR will be about 250 in this prediction
roughly estimated by me.
Year Max.(UT) Sol.Lon. D-R(AU) Ej.V(m/s) fM ZHR
1466 Nov.17 21:12 235.524 -0.00085 +10.10 0.085 60
1533 Nov.17 21:30 235.536 +0.00031 +12.68 0.083 160
1466 Nov.17 21:52 235.552 -0.00066 +10.25 0.031 30
And, I am sorry for my late announcement.
Best regards,
Mikiya Sato
Mikiya.Sato@nao.ac.jp
Leonids 2009by Mikiya SatoPredictionI calculated dust trails of Leonids in 2009. I report the simplest results.
Table 1 Data of dust trail of Leonids 2009
Ej.YearDate
(UT)TimeSol. Lon.
(2000)D-r
(AU)Ej.V
(m/s)D-a
(AU)fMAlp.Del.Vg
(km/s)Notice14662009/11/17.8821:12235.524-0.00085+10.100.1010.085153.97+22.1170.61ZHR=60
15332009/11/17.9021:30235.536+0.00031+12.680.1340.083154.30+22.8970.44ZHR=160
14662009/11/17.9121:52235.552-0.00066+10.250.1030.031153.97+22.0870.61ZHR=30
http://fas.kaicho.net/tenshow/meteor/leo2009/fig1.jpg
Fig. 1 Distributions of the dust trails of Leonids in 2009
Mainly, three trails will encounter the earth.
The expected peak time is at about 21:30 (UT) on Nov 17. However, this prediction include the error of about one hour.
And the value of ZHR is roughly estimated.
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