有更新 Mikiya Sato的狮子座流星雨预报

Dear all,

I am Mikiya Sato.
I opened the web of my prediction of Leonids 2009.

http://fas.kaicho.net/tenshow/meteor/leo2009/leo2009.htm

Mainly, three trails will encounter the earth on Nov 17.
The maximum is at about 21:30, but it is uncertain.
A total maximum of ZHR will be about 250 in this prediction
roughly estimated by me.

Year Max.(UT) Sol.Lon. D-R(AU) Ej.V(m/s) fM ZHR
1466 Nov.17 21:12 235.524 -0.00085 +10.10 0.085 60
1533 Nov.17 21:30 235.536 +0.00031 +12.68 0.083 160
1466 Nov.17 21:52 235.552 -0.00066 +10.25 0.031 30

And, I am sorry for my late announcement.

Best regards,

Mikiya Sato
Mikiya.Sato@nao.ac.jp

Leonids 2009by Mikiya SatoPredictionI calculated dust trails of Leonids in 2009. I report the simplest results.
Table 1 Data of dust trail of Leonids 2009

Ej.Year	Date (UT)	Time	Sol. Lon. (2000)	D-r (AU)	Ej.V (m/s)	D-a (AU)	fM	Alp.	Del.	Vg (km/s)	Notice
1466	2009/11/17.88	21:12	235.524	-0.00085	+10.10	0.101	0.085	153.97	+22.11	70.61	ZHR=60
1533	2009/11/17.90	21:30	235.536	+0.00031	+12.68	0.134	0.083	154.30	+22.89	70.44	ZHR=160
1466	2009/11/17.91	21:52	235.552	-0.00066	+10.25	0.103	0.031	153.97	+22.08	70.61	ZHR=30

                               
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Fig. 1 Distributions of the dust trails of Leonids in 2009

Mainly, three trails will encounter the earth.
The expected peak time is at about 21:30 (UT) on Nov 17. However, this prediction include the error of about one hour.
And the value of ZHR is roughly estimated.