太阳在平安夜发脾气了？
本帖最后由 q零度星系 于 2011-12-25 16:47 编辑http://spaceweather.com/CHRISTMAS EVE ERUPTION: A filament of magnetism connected to sunspot AR1386 erupted during the early hours of Dec. 24th. Extreme UV-wavelength cameras onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the picturesque blast: http://spaceweather.com/images2011/24dec11/christmaseve_strip2.jpgThe C5-class eruption hurled a billion-ton coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, but not toward Earth. With the cloud sailing wide-left of our planet, Christmas geomagnetic storms are unlikely. Nevertheless, this active region merits watching as it turns toward Earth in the days ahead, possibly positioning itself for the first storms of 2012. 空间天气
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html
澳大利亚的
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/9
自动更新
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_1m.gif
本帖最后由 q零度星系 于 2011-12-25 17:16 编辑
太阳黑子数曲线图
http://mail.qq.com/cgi-bin/picimage?k=0000bceee78c6a54ZC0000O_7PN5R%7ERJWlUdgR1vjPlg36
FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CycleSol. StartSol. MaxMax SSN Length Rise to Max Max to End
Year Mth Year Mth Yr Mth Years Mths YearsMths
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 2009 Jan 2012 Dec 90.2 11.0 132 3.9 47 7.1 86
IPS will adjust this forecast cycle as the new cycle unfolds.
The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short
term variation, only for longer term cycle variation.
IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Issued on Dec 012011
------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.798.794.690.585.382.1
200381.078.674.270.467.965.362.160.359.858.457.055.0
200452.149.447.245.643.941.740.239.337.635.935.435.2
200534.634.033.631.728.928.829.127.525.925.625.023.0
200620.818.717.417.117.416.415.315.615.614.212.712.1
200712.011.610.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0
2008 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7
2009 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.0 7.5 8.2
2010 9.210.612.313.915.416.316.717.419.623.226.528.9
201131.033.536.941.847.653.0e 57.4e 61.3e 63.9e 65.7e 68.3e 71.8e
201275.3e 78.5e 80.3e 80.6e 80.3e 80.984.485.386.187.589.490.2
201389.488.887.986.785.684.984.383.282.882.481.780.9
201480.680.881.381.481.180.378.777.275.874.072.070.5
201569.167.565.162.560.157.855.753.951.850.048.446.4
201644.443.041.339.437.936.434.933.933.132.130.729.1
201727.926.525.023.622.020.418.817.816.916.015.114.2
201813.713.312.812.412.011.410.4 9.4 8.6 8.0 7.4 6.4
2019 5.4 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
============================================================================
-----------------EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2
2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9
2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0
2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6
2004 103.2 100.898.997.696.294.493.392.591.289.989.589.4
200588.988.488.186.784.784.684.883.682.582.381.980.5
200679.077.676.876.776.876.275.575.775.774.873.973.6
200773.573.372.872.371.671.070.670.170.170.169.969.5
200869.168.868.668.768.768.668.468.368.167.967.967.8
200967.967.968.068.168.168.468.869.470.270.670.971.3
201071.972.773.674.675.676.176.476.878.280.782.984.6
201186.288.090.794.699.3 103.9e107.8e111.3e113.7e115.3e117.7e121.0e
2012 124.4e127.5e129.2e129.5e129.2e129.8 133.3 134.1 134.9 136.3 138.2 139.0
2013 138.2 137.6 136.7 135.5 134.4 133.7 133.2 132.1 131.7 131.3 130.6 129.8
2014 129.5 129.7 130.2 130.3 130.0 129.2 127.7 126.2 124.9 123.1 121.2 119.8
2015 118.5 117.0 114.8 112.4 110.2 108.1 106.3 104.7 102.9 101.3 100.098.3
201696.695.594.192.691.490.389.188.487.787.086.084.8
201783.982.981.980.979.878.877.777.176.575.975.474.8
201874.574.374.073.773.573.172.672.071.571.270.970.3
201969.869.369.068.868.768.768.668.468.067.967.967.8
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be).Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting)
and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24.
Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values.Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed values; values later in time are entirely predicted.Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion.They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CycleSol. StartSol. MaxMax SSN Length Rise to Max Max to End
Year Mth Year Mth Yr Mth Years Mths YearsMths
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 2009 Jan 2012 Dec 90.2 11.0 132 3.9 47 7.1 86
IPS will adjust this forecast cycle as the new cycle unfolds.
The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short
term variation, only for longer term cycle variation.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
太阳关心银河年，地球年不关心 自从知道了太阳的很多事情后，再看到阳光，我总在心里想这个恒星，内部发生着核聚变，
多亏了它，给了人类光和热，
多亏了它，不大也不小，不远也不近。
才有了地球上的生命。
一切都是偶然吧。
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