Lyrids 2011: prediction of activity

Lyrids 2011: prediction of activity
[size=-1]to the list of predictions

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Introduction

                               
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Fig. 1. Space-temporal projection of p2000g1р-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 22.01.2009-21.07.2012 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).

                               
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Fig. 2. Detailed space-temporal projection of p2000g1р-ids trails parts onto their minimal distance passages dirung the period 22.01.2011-22.07.2011 (correspondence between colours of the particles and their ejection velocities can be seen here).

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An encounter with 1472 trail was found for 1472. Its maximum time is 22 April 15:19 UT and parameters of the encounter are Vej=-48.48 m/s, rD-rE=+0.00045 AU, ZHRex=2. So far we do not expect any significant impact from this encounter above backround activity.

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References

1. "Comet's dust 2.0" program by S. Shanov and S. Dubrovsky. [Used for orbital computations.]
2. Lyytinen E, van Flandern T. "Predicting the strength of Leonid outbursts", 2000, Icarus, P. 158-160.
3. Jenniskens P. Meteor showers and their parent comets, 2006, 780 p.