日本观测到14日的峰值

2003 Leonids FLASH result by Japanese Visual Observation.
1499 trail was predicted around 15:00-18:00 13/14 night.
It was clear sky in Japan. So, many observed data were
reported. Most of observers said "Almost of meteors were
faint".


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2003 Leonids FLASH in JAPAN (Visual Observation)
(The Nippon Meteor Society)
- calculated by Shigeo UCHIYAMA(NMS) -
---------------------------------------------------------

(1) Daily Result

DATE(UT) Nind. Teff LEO HRave ZHRave Err.
-------------------------------------------------
Nov 13d 17 39.2 438 11.2 54.4 2.6

(2) Hourly Result

DATE (UT) Nobs Teff LEO HRave ZHRave Err.
------------------------------------------------------
Nov 13d 16:00 10 6.3 30 4.8 38.0 6.9
Nov 13d 17:00 12 9.0 70 7.8 46.1 5.5
Nov 13d 18:00 15 11.6 146 12.6 59.2 4.9
Nov 13d 19:00 12 9.3 132 14.2 56.7 4.9
Nov 13d 20:00 4 3.0 60 20.0 63.1 8.1

Total Leonid meteors : 438
Total Observed Time : 39.2hr

* excludingbservations under unfavorable condition
(Lm<4.0mag, Cl>=0.3, RP-h<15deg)

Nind.: the number of observers during night
Nobs : the number of observers
Teff : observed period (hr)
LEO : the number of Leonid meteors
HRave: average HR
ZHRave:average ZHR population index = 2.2
Err. : ZHRave/sqrt(LEO)

Observers (17observers):
Erika MATSUMOTO, Erina YANAGIDA, Hiroshi OGAWA,
Kayo MIYAO, Kazuhiro SUMIE, Kazuhiro OSADA,
Kazumi TERAKUBO, Ken-ichi FUSHIMI, Koetsu SATO,
Masayuki TODA, Masayuki YAMAMOTO, Mikiya SATO,
Satoshi KARIYA, Shigeo UCHIYAMA, Takashi SEKIGUCHI,
Takema HASHIMOTO, Tomoko SATO,

(We also received by Minako OHTA)

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In this time, since this report is FLASH for whole
Leonid period, population index is 2.2
On 13/14 night, however, there were many faint meteors.
This means a large population index. Therefore, Mr.Shigeo
UCHIYAMA caluclated other population index as following.

--Daily Result
DATE(UT) r ZHRave Err.
-----------------------------
Nov.13d 2.5 63.5 3.0
Nov.13d 3.0 78.4 3.7
Nov.13d 3.5 92.8 4.4

--Hourly Result

DATE ZHR(ave) ZHR(ave) ZHR(ave)
(UT) r=2.5 r=3.0 r=3.5
-------------------------------------------
Nov. 13d 16:00 44.2 54.3 64.3
Nov. 13d 17:00 54.1 67.4 80.4
Nov. 13d 18:00 69.6 86.8 103.9
Nov. 13d 19:00 66.3 82.1 97.3
Nov. 13d 20:00 71.7 84.8 96.7

When population index is large, ZHR is neary 100.
Then we do not calculate population index from observed
magnitude distribution yet. If population index is
around 3.5 or 3.5<, we can say the prediction was true.

with best wishes
Hiroshi Ogawa

不过也是件好消息。这样一来孟奂的预报就正确了，他认为暗流星很多。