太阳爆发了？会不会有极光？

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CME TARGETS MARS, EARTH: New sunspot 1387 erupted during the late hours of Christmas Day, producing an M4-class flare and hurling a CME toward Earth and Mars. Click to view an animated forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab:

                               
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The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 1200 UT and a direct hit to the planet Mars on Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars. Here on Earth, NOAA forecasters estimate a 30-to-40% chance of geomagnetic storms on Dec. 28th when the CME and an incoming solar wind stream (unrelated to the CME) could arrive in quick succession. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Wednesday night. Aurora alerts: text, voice

BEAUTIFUL BLAST: After three years of deep quiet, the sun woke up in 2011. Sunspots and solar flares became commonplace again as long-awaited Solar Cycle 24 got underway. One of the most beautiful eruptions of the young solar cycle occured just this past weekend. Rogerio Marcon of Campinas SP Brasil photographed the blast on Christmas Eve:

                               
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"I made a time-lapse video of the eruption," says Marcon. "What a wonderful Christmas present." While Marcon was recording the event from Earth, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory was doing the same from Earth-orbit. It was beautiful up there, too.

This explosion was not Earth-directed. Next time, however, could be different. The source of the blast, sunspot 1386, is turning toward Earth, increasing the chances of a geoeffective flare in the days ahead. Solar Flare alerts: text, voice.

more images: from Philippe Roucheux of Joigny, Bourgogne, France

极光监测与预报 （自动更新）
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静看星星 发表于 2011-12-26 13:53

                               
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楼主，你每次发帖偶都看不懂。。。能不能翻译下再贴上来啊。

重点就是  NOAA的预报，估计12月28日的地磁暴CME和太阳风（无关的CME）可以到达30至40％的机会。 .
在周三晚上，高纬度的人们可能观测到极光。

静看星星 发表于 2011-12-26 13:53

                               
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楼主，你每次发帖偶都看不懂。。。能不能翻译下再贴上来啊。

极光监测与预报 （自动更新）
http://tianxiangyubao.happymm.cn/script/forum/view.asp?article_id=794081&IsInFrame=1

反正我们这些南方人是无福消受了

CMEs TARGET EARTH, MARS: The odds of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 28th are improving with the launch of two CMEs toward Earth in less than 24 hours. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed this one on Dec. 26th:

                               
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According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Mars is also in the line of fire. The first of the two CMEs is squarely directed toward the Red Planet--estimated time of arrival: Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars.

BEAUTIFUL BLAST: After three years of deep quiet, the sun woke up in 2011. Sunspots and solar flares became commonplace again as long-awaited Solar Cycle 24 got underway. One of the most beautiful eruptions of the young solar cycle occured just this past weekend. Rogerio Marcon of Campinas SP Brasil photographed the blast on Christmas Eve:

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

"I made a time-lapse video of the eruption," says Marcon. "What a wonderful Christmas present." While Marcon was recording the event from Earth, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory was doing the same from Earth-orbit. It was beautiful up there, too.

This explosion was not Earth-directed. Next time, however, could be different. The source of the blast, sunspot 1386, is turning toward Earth, increasing the chances of a geoeffective flare in the days ahead. Solar Flare alerts: text, voice.

more images: from Philippe Roucheux of Joigny, Bourgogne, France

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters have downgraded the chances of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 29th to 20%. A CME is still expected to arrrive later today, but the longer it takes to get here, the weaker its impact is likely to be. Storm alerts: text, voice.

"With a CME expected to collide with the Earth's magnetic field any minute now, we were treated to a wonderful display of aurora in Ivalo, Finland, last night," reports tour guide and nature photographer Andy Keen. "We drove north to escape the overcast and eventually found a hole in the cloud cover. To our delight moments after parking up the vehicle auroras appeared right above our heads." (continued below)

                               
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"As you may imagine the whole group was really excited as none of them had witnessed it before," adds Keen. "In fact, 5 of them had travelled from Australia, 1 from Israel and 1 from Hong Kong so it was lovely to see their dream being fulfilled."

MOTHER OF PEARL: As December draws to a close, the first polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) of northern winter are forming around the Arctic Circle. Anders Gjørwad Hagen of Vinstra, Norway, photographed this specimen on Dec. 27th:

                               
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Also known as "nacreous" or "mother of pearl" clouds, icy PSCs form in the lower stratosphere when temperatures drop to around minus 85ºC. Sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm across produce the characteristic bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference.

The display Hagen witnessed formed in the wake of "Dagmar," a storm that "hit the coast of Norway with hurricane strength on Dec. 25th and 26th," says Hagen. "Record breaking winds up to 145 mph were recorded. While people on the coast dealt with the aftermath, photo enthusiasts inland saw the effects of high altitude winds in these colorful clouds. It was a beautiful display, but not comfortable to think of all the suffering lying behind it."

more images: from Bjarki Mikkelsen of Jokkmokk Lapland, Sweden; from P-M Hedén of Tänndalen, Sweden; from Krystian Rosa of Brandbu, Norway; from Patricia Cowern of Porjus,Sweden

SOLAR FLARE: Emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, sunspot AR1389 unleashed an M2-class solar flare at 1350 UT on Dec. 29th. The blast shows that the newly-visible sunspot is capable of significant eruptions. AR1389 is not yet facing Earth, but it is turning in our direction.

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters have downgraded the chances of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 29th to 20%. A CME is still expected to arrrive later today, but the longer it takes to get here, the weaker its impact is likely to be. Storm alerts: text, voice.

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对英文还是看的懂，问楼主一个问题：我比较感兴趣的是如果非常强的爆发并且正对地球，地球磁场会不会承受不起？据说象某年大爆发时美国连佛罗里达洲都能看见极光。

METEORITE MYSTERY: Earth is mysteriously peppered with fragments of giant asteroid Vesta. (Here's a piece you can have for yourself.) New observations from NASA's Dawn spacecraft suggest an explanation involving one of the tallest mountains in the Solar System. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

LAST AURORAS OF 2011? A minor solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field with just enough force to ignite Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle.. Hanneke Luijting sends this picture taken Dec. 30th from Tromsø, Norway:

                               
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"It was amazing, I just sat there in the snow next to my tripod staring up into the sky, not believing my eyes!" says . "What a way to end 2011."

The show might not be over yet. There are still some hours left until 2012, and more auroras are possible as the solar wind continues to blow. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

more images: from Frank Olsen of Vesterålen, Norway; from Helge Mortensen of Brensholmen outside Tromsø; from Chad Blakley of Abisko National Park, Sweden; from Göran Strand of Aspås, Sweden; from P-M Hedén of Tänndalen, Sweden; from Beate Kiil Karlsen of Norway; from Andy Keen on the Finnish-Russian border

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: New sunspot 1389 is crackling with M-class solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme UV flash from the active region at 2151 UT on Dec. 29th:

                               
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Although the sunspot is not directly facing Earth, its flares can affect our planet. X-rays and UV radiation from yesterday's flares created waves of ionization in the upper atmosphere, altering the propagation of radio waves. The phenomenon was particularly strong over Europe where radio amateurs using low frequency receivers detected sudden ionospheric disturbances ("SIDs") above Ireland and Italy. Student groups who wish to detect solar flares in this way can ask about obtaining a SID monitor from Stanford University.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There's also a 5% chance of X-flares. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

more images: from Michael Borman of Evansville, Indiana

MOTHER OF PEARL: As December draws to a close, the first polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) of northern winter are forming around the Arctic Circle. Anders Gjørwad Hagen of Vinstra, Norway, photographed this specimen on Dec. 27th:

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

Also known as "nacreous" or "mother of pearl" clouds, icy PSCs form in the lower stratosphere when temperatures drop to around minus 85ºC. Sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm across produce the characteristic bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference.

The display Hagen witnessed formed in the wake of "Dagmar," a storm that "hit the coast of Norway with hurricane strength on Dec. 25th and 26th," says Hagen. "Record breaking winds up to 145 mph were recorded. While people on the coast dealt with the aftermath, photo enthusiasts inland saw the effects of high altitude winds in these colorful clouds. It was a beautiful display, but not comfortable to think of all the suffering lying behind it."

more images: from Bjarki Mikkelsen of Jokkmokk Lapland, Sweden; from P-M Hedén of Tänndalen, Sweden; from Krystian Rosa of Brandbu, Norway; from Patricia Cowern of Porjus,Sweden