双子座流星雨imo初步实时监测图

数据还不全面，可以看出流星雨大致的规模

ZHR才120? 看其他观测同好的意思, 500都有了?

13号肯定太低了!北京时间午夜他那才60的样子.不知道是缺乏观测报告,还是高峰时间太短,没有被注意和记录?
  另外,500是我个人的感觉,甚至有的同好认为还能超!不过超过200是肯定的!不然哪来那么多一分钟4颗的群内流星啊!还只是我们看到的呢.

双子座流星雨从来都没有出现过这种突爆峰值，因此如果北斗流星月可以肯定观测到突爆峰值的话，意义特别重大。
从印度观测者的资料来看，我们没有看到任何可能出现ZHR>100的爆发，但他们的时刻并不是很准确。
建议北斗流星月立即与IMO联系，穷尽一切办法整理出一份观测报表出来。

一分钟4颗流星并不代表ZHR到达500，ZHR是一个综合值，里面涉及了很多参数，而且到目前为止，从世界范围的观测情况来看，并没有迹象表明出现这样大的一个峰值，我有一年在极大附近经历过多次每分钟4－5颗流星的双子座流星雨，后来IMO的数据显示当时ZHR也只在120左右。
更要注意的是，不能以几分钟的时间段就判断发生了大流量，因为流星群有聚群现象，也就是一阵阵的，有时连续出现，有时很久没有一颗，正确的ZHR是平均统计规算的结果。几年前狮子座流星雨期间就有人犯过这种错误，用几分钟的观测结果报告出现了流星暴，而且ZHR高得离奇，后来证明这是错误的结果。

不过
从今年的情况看，似乎双子座流星雨的极大提前了，当然，这只是我自己的感觉。

(meteorobs) Observation December 13/14 2006 (MARPI) short periods   Message List    

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DATE: December 13/14 2006
BEGIN: 0110 UT (1910 CST) END: 1130 UT (0530 CST)
OBSERVER: Pierre Martin (MARPI)
LOCATION: Long: -85.371 West; Lat: 35.655 North Elevation: 1800 ft
City & Province: Fall Creek Falls State Park, Tennessee, USA
RECORDING METHOD: talking clock/tape recorder, plotting & cord align
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

OBSERVED SHOWERS:________________________________________radiant
position
ANT (Antihelions)________________________06:32 +23
MON (Monocerotids)_______________________06:56 +08
GEM (Geminids)___________________________07:28 +33
PUP (Puppid-Velids)______________________08:32 -45
HYD (Sigma Hydrids)______________________08:40 +01
SPO (sporadics)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

OBSERVING PERIODS: 0 = none seen; / = shower not observed

PERIOD(UT)__FIELD_____Teff____LM____SPO___GEM__ANT__MON__HYD__PUP

0110-0125___0349+43___0.25___6.40____0_____4____/____/____/____/
0125-0140___0349+43___0.25___6.40____1_____8____/____/____/____/
0140-0155___0349+43___0.25___6.40____2_____3____/____/____/____/
0155-0211___0349+43___0.26___6.40____0_____12___/____/____/____/
0345-0400___0645+35___0.25___6.45____3_____13___0____0____0____0
0400-0418___0645+35___0.25___6.45____2_____17___1____1____0____0
0418-0433___0645+35___0.25___6.45____1_____10___0____1____0____0
0433-0450___0645+35___0.28___6.45____0_____24___1____1____0____0
0456-0508___0743+32___0.20___6.43____1_____15___0____1____0____0
0509-0524___0743+32___0.25___6.43____1_____18___0____1____0____0
0524-0542___0743+32___0.30___6.43____3_____27___0____1____0____0
0542-0610___0743+32___0.30___6.43____2_____27___0____1____2____0
0617-0635___0832+30___0.25___6.43____1_____16___1____1____1____0
0635-0651___0832+30___0.26___6.43____7_____23___1____1____3____0
0654-0712___0832+30___0.30___6.43____1_____24___1____1____0____0
0716-0731___0705+00___0.25___6.38____3_____25___2____2____1____0
0731-0746___0705+00___0.25___6.38____3_____28___0____0____1____0
0746-0805___0705+00___0.32___6.38____2_____26___0____0____0____0
0813-0828___0705+00___0.25___6.38____3_____19___0____1____0____0
0828-0840___0643+21___0.20___6.30____0_____16___0____0____1____0
0843-0858___0643+21___0.25___6.30____1_____26___1____1____0____0
0858-0920___0643+21___0.37___6.30____2_____39___2____1____0____0
0921-0938___0643+21___0.25___6.30____3_____26___1____2____0____0
0938-0958___0729+27___0.33___6.30____2_____37___1____1____0____0
1001-1019___0729+27___0.25___6.30____5_____26___0____0____0____0
1019-1034___0729+27___0.25___6.30____1_____32___0____1____2____0
1034-1050___0821+30___0.26___6.30____2_____17___0____0____0____0
1054-1109___0821+30___0.25___6.30____2_____15___0____0____0____0
1109-1130___0821+30___0.33___6.30____4_____20___0____0____1____0

TOTALS:_______________7.74___________58___598___12___19___12___0 = 699

Note: The first column (Period UT) refers to observing periods broken
down as close as possible to one hour of true observing, in Universal
Time. The second column (Field) is the area in in the sky where I
centered my field of view. The third column (TEFF) represents
effective observing time (corrected for breaks or any time I did not
spent looking at the sky). The next column (LM) is the average naked
eye limiting magnitude, determined by triangle star counts. All
following columns indicate the number of meteors for each shower
observed.
------------------------

MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTIONS:

SHOWER
______-4__-3__-2__-1___0__+1__+2__+3__+4__+5______AVE

GEM____1___3___5___34__51__73__126_134_122_49____+2.34
MON____0___0___0___0___3___1___2___5___7___1_____+2.79
ANT____0___0___0___0___1___0___1___5___4___1_____+3.16
HYD____0___0___0___0___1___0___2___3___3___3_____+3.33
SPO____0___0___1___0___2___2___8___19__19__7_____+3.17

Note: Magnitude -8 is comparable to a quarter moon, magnitude -4 with
the planet Venus, magnitude -1 with the brightest star Sirius,
magnitude +2 to +3 with most average naked eye stars and magnitude +6
to +7 are the faintest stars the naked eye can see under typical dark
conditions. A meteor of at least magnitude -3 is considered a
fireball. The above table contains the magnitudes from all observed
meteors, and the average (last column) for showers.
------------------------

SKY OBSCURED (FOV) (UT): None

------------------------

Dead time: 62.16 min (breaks)

Breaks (UT): 4:05-08, 4:50-56, 5:08-09, 5:42-52, 6:10-17, 6:20-23,
6:51-54, 7:12-16, 8:05-13, 8:40-43, 9:20-21, 9:23-25, 9:58-10:01,
10:04(20sec), 10:08-11, 10:50-54, 11:13(20sec), 11:25(30sec)



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Recent NAMN Observations - December 2006




OBSERVERS

Salvador Aguirre, Mexico
Joseph Assmus, USA
Michael Boschat, Canada
Ed Cannon, USA
Tibor Csorgei, Slovakia
George Gliba, USA
Bill Godley, USA
Wayne Hally, USA
Roberto Haver, Italy
Bhargav Joshi, India
Javor Kac, Slovenia
Vijay Likhite, India
Mike Linnolt, USA
David Love, USA
Paul Martsching, USA
Bruce McCurdy, Canada
Mayuresh Prabhune, India
David Swann, USA
Harry Waldron, USA
William Watson, USA
Kim Youmans, USA



OBSERVING PERIODS (UT)


December 8:
Tibor Csorgei (Teff=0.50, 3 GEM, 2 SPO)

December 10:
Paul Martsching (Teff=1.00, 2 GEM, 4 SPO)

December 11:
Michael Boschat (Teff=1.00, 1 SPO)
Paul Martsching (Teff=3.50, 9 GEM, 1 MON, 8 SPO)

December 12:
Michael Boschat (Teff=2.00, 1 GEM, 1 SPO)
George Gliba (Teff=2.00, 13 GEM, 1 HYD, 2 MON, 4 XOR, 10 SPO)
Bill Godley (Teff=1.50, 10 GEM, 6 SPO)

December 13:
Salvador Aguirre (Teff=1.13, 118 GEM, 2 SPO)
Joseph Assmus (Teff=0.75, 7 GEM, 2 SPO)
Michael Boschat (Teff=2.00, 4 GEM)
Ed Cannon (Teff=1.50, 52 GEM, 17 SPO)
Tibor Csorgei (Teff=0.50, 27 GEM, 2 SPO)
Bhargav Joshi (Teff=2.00, 25 GEM, 7 SPO)
Javor Kac (Teff=2.26, 1 COM, 61 GEM, 2 HYD, 2 MON, 5 XOR, 27 SPO)
Paul Martsching (Teff=3.25, 2 COM, 46 GEM, 1 MON, 11 SPO)
Bruce McCurdy (Teff=4.00, 85 GEM, 4 HYD, 6 MON, 25 SPO)

December 14:
Ed Cannon (Teff=1.47, 131 GEM, 11 SPO)
George Gliba (Teff=2.00, 50 GEM, 2 MON, 4 XOR, 9 SPO)
Bill Godley (Teff=1.25, 23 GEM, 4 SPO)
Roberto Haver (Teff=2.58, 116 GEM, 19 SPO)
Bhargav Joshi (Teff=1.15, 10 GEM, 1 SPO)
Javor Kac (Teff=6.13, 3 COM, 554 GEM, 2 HYD, 3 MON, 13 XOR, 88 SPO)
Vijay Likhite (Teff=1.03, 1 GEM, 21 SPO)
Mike Linnolt (Teff=1.00, 33 GEM, 6 SPO)
David Love (Teff=4.00, 21 GEM, 4 SPO)
Paul Martsching (Teff=4.50, 3 COM, 162 GEM, 16 SPO)
Mayuresh Prabhune (Teff=2.22, 42 GEM, 18 SPO)
David Swann (Teff=2.94, 39 GEM, 5 SPO)
Harry Waldron (Teff=1.00, 32 GEM, 4 SPO)
William Watson (Teff=3.66, 154 GEM, 1 MON, 9 SPO)
Kim Youmans (Teff=1.26, 49 GEM, 5 SPO)

December 15:
Bill Godley (Teff=0.75, 9 GEM, 2 SPO)
Javor Kac (Teff=7.13, 5 COM, 297 GEM, 6 HYD, 1 MON, 6 XOR, 87 SPO)
Paul Martsching (Teff=5.00, 4 COM, 51 GEM, 1 HYD, 16 SPO)
Harry Waldron (Teff=0.25, 1 GEM, 1 SPO)

December 16:
Wayne Hally (Teff=2.70, 2 COM, 4 GEM, 3 MON, 9 SPO)



OBSERVED SHOWERS

COM: Coma Berenicids    20
GEM: Geminids         2242
HYD: Sigma-Hydrids      16
MON: Monocerotids       62
XOR: Chi Orionids       32

SPO: Sporadics         460

EFFECTIVE OBSERVING TIME (Teff) = 80.91 hours

我在14号晚上12点开始观测，到凌晨2点40分共看到52颗流星，这其中有5颗是群外的，这5颗中还有一个是麒麟座流星群的。以猎户－金牛－御夫－英仙－仙后这一片天区最多。

[quote:9f2501f6ad="BA2CR"]我在14号晚上12点开始观测，到凌晨2点40分共看到52颗流星，这其中有5颗是群外的，这5颗中还有一个是麒麟座流星群的。以猎户－金牛－御夫－英仙－仙后这一片天区最多。[/quote]

和我的观测相似
我在14日23：10－15日00：10（北京时间）一个小时看到16颗群内
所以说极大可能和IMO预报有出入

[quote:1a11b20ae0="suhuasky"][quote:1a11b20ae0="BA2CR"]我在14号晚上12点开始观测，到凌晨2点40分共看到52颗流星，这其中有5颗是群外的，这5颗中还有一个是麒麟座流星群的。以猎户－金牛－御夫－英仙－仙后这一片天区最多。[/quote]

和我的观测相似
我在14日23：10－15日00：10（北京时间）一个小时看到16颗群内，极限星等4.5，规模不大，而很多观测者在13－14日观测到很可观的流量，
所以我觉得极大时刻提前，可能和IMO预报有出入[/quote]

我14号晚上看到六颗，第二颗和第三颗、第五颗和第六颗都是连续出现的，第二颗和第三颗只见的时间间隔不超过3秒。

很专业的监测！

这才是正道！

进一步的数据出来了
Time (UT) Solarlon nINT nGEM ZHR  
2006-12-10 21:13 258.577 2 10 12 +-4
2006-12-12 22:05 260.647 11 243 44 +-3
2006-12-13 01:10 260.777 12 132 44 +-4
2006-12-13 19:10 261.540 80 578 64 +-3
2006-12-13 21:08 261.623 64 903 78 +-3
2006-12-13 22:33 261.684 51 886 102 +-3
2006-12-13 23:31 261.725 64 942 105 +-3
2006-12-14 00:32 261.768 53 935 110 +-4
2006-12-14 02:01 261.831 47 803 99 +-3
2006-12-14 04:03 261.917 15 111 88 +-8
2006-12-14 20:34 262.617 41 441 66 +-3
2006-12-14 22:52 262.714 81 496 58 +-3
2006-12-15 00:51 262.798 19 156 44 +-4
2006-12-16 00:58 263.820 6 12 4 +-1
2006-12-16 03:06 263.911 2 0 2 +-2
2006-12-16 09:34 264.185 3 4 5 +-2

For each estimation interval: time is the middle of the interval, nINT is the number of observing periods and nGEM is the number of Geminids involved. ZHR = (1 + sum nGEM) / sum(Teff/C) where Teff is the effective observing time and C is the total correction for limiting magnitude, clouds and zenith correction. The solar longitudes refer to equinox J2000.0.

从汇总数据来看，今年的双子座流星雨极大发生在14日00：32（UT）前后，对应太阳黄径261.768，极大ZHR值110，流量正常，没有迹象表明有几百的爆发，极大时间提前10个小时，印证了我的推测。

2006-12-13 01:10 260.777 12 132 44 +-4
2006-12-13 19:10 261.540 80 578 64 +-3
有18个小时没有数据
正好是北斗流星月观测到可疑大流量期间，所以是否真有一个短暂爆发还需等IMO更多的补充资料。

"更要注意的是，不能以几分钟的时间段就判断发生了大流量，因为流星群有聚群现象，也就是一阵阵的，有时连续出现，有时很久没有一颗，正确的ZHR是平均统计规算的结果。"


我很赞同上面的话!.我所疑虑的就是我观测到的到底是一次提前的高峰还是一次比较强烈的不均匀现象!如果是后者,那么当然用ZHR平均值,如果有证据表明是前者,那么我不知道给出一个极短时间的ZHR是否合适?
  另外我没有很遗憾没有标准观测,但是13号的流量肯定大大高于IMO所谓的60!至于极大是否提前,我没有看.
  我会多问一些同学,包括北师大,北京工商大学当时联合观测他们的情况!

Page generated on 20 December 2006 at 16:00 UT.

Activity profile
ZHRmax = 119 based on 7519 meteors in 693 data intervals, assuming fixed population index r = 2.0 and zenith correction 1/sin(hR).



Time (UT) Solarlon nINT nGEM ZHR  
2006-12-10 21:13 258.577 2 10 12 +-4
2006-12-12 22:41 260.673 15 290 44 +-3
2006-12-13 01:33 260.794 8 85 46 +-5
2006-12-13 08:40 261.095 16 85 34 +-4
2006-12-13 19:26 261.551 99 882 66 +-2
2006-12-13 21:37 261.644 71 804 83 +-3
2006-12-13 22:41 261.689 55 842 102 +-4
2006-12-13 23:31 261.724 66 947 105 +-3
2006-12-14 00:32 261.767 65 969 107 +-3
2006-12-14 02:01 261.831 47 803 99 +-3
2006-12-14 04:33 261.938 18 137 90 +-8
2006-12-14 09:48 262.160 12 145 90 +-7
2006-12-14 11:50 262.246 2 29 119 +-22
2006-12-14 19:02 262.552 37 330 43 +-2
2006-12-14 22:07 262.683 105 805 59 +-2
2006-12-15 00:21 262.777 59 320 48 +-3
2006-12-15 23:59 263.779 10 31 5 +-1
2006-12-16 02:55 263.903 3 1 3 +-2
2006-12-16 09:34 264.185 3 4 5 +-2

For each estimation interval: time is the middle of the interval, nINT is the number of observing periods and nGEM is the number of Geminids involved. ZHR = (1 + sum nGEM) / sum(Teff/C) where Teff is the effective observing time and C is the total correction for limiting magnitude, clouds and zenith correction. The solar longitudes refer to equinox J2000.0.


IMO