Some last information on the 3rd perihelion passage of 1999 R1 = 2003 R5
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Dear all,
here is some updated information on the coming third perihelion passage of 1999
R1. According to the prediction in the A&A paper, the time of perihelion is
expected for Sep 11, see information at http://tinyurl.com/2a42um .
Yesterday, Rainer Kracht reminded me that there is some difference if one takes
the orbit with only C2 positions and the elements from combined C2+C3
astrometry. Actually, when integrating the former orbit, you end up with a
perihelion time at Sep 26, while the latter results in Sep 11. So, which one is
correct?
Answer: We will see... The preference for Sep 11 comes from the assumption
that the object is stable in the 3:1 resonance with Jupiter. Thus, the
semi-major axis and periodicity shouldn't change too much from one perihelion
passage to the next. In addition, I think that the negative effects that
introduced by using the C3 astrometry (which is worse than C2) is compensated by
the longer arc.
The bottom line of all this technical stuff is: You will probably see the comet
around Sep 11, but don't be too surprised if it takes another 2 weeks.
Recently, I published a re-analysis of the available photometry on comets-ml.
The updated numbers are H=22.1 and n=5.1 (K=12.8). So, if you use some
planetarium software, use these values to estimate the brightness.
Cheers,
Sebastian |