社区 › 彗星观测 › 跟踪贴：大彗星C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS(原创）

wb34 发表于 2013-1-24 09:01

C/2011 L4, 2013 Jan 23.81 UT; m1= 7.5; Dia= 2.5'; DC= 7; 10cm f4 refl
(20x).

wb34 发表于 2013-1-25 10:26

C/2011 L4, 2013 Jan 24.83 UT; m1= 7.4; Dia= 2.8'; DC= 7; 10cm f4 refl
(20x).

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-27 11:58

泛星亮度趋势继续变缓，与MPEC预报亮度交叉，按此发展最大亮度越3等左右。 最外面的是前期亮度趋势，红线是MPEC预报趋势，绿线是目前的趋势。

378412148 发表于 2013-1-27 12:02

看来真的可能只有3等了……

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-27 12:27

相位角散射模型

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-27 14:44

The Comet's Tale for 2012 published C/2011 L4预测

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-27 16:13

也不要太悲观
4月底进入北极星区
5月亮度在8等左右
和前不久K5最漂亮的时候差不多亮度
所以很容易观测
而且整夜可见
整体而言还是摄影观测比较方便
只是肉眼条件就差很多了。

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-28 23:44

Hi all ,


I analyzed the last visuals magnitudes received and my personal prediction of
maximun brightness for this comet based 145 visuals observations is m1 ~ 5 :


-350 < T < -140 days .. m0 = 3.1 , n = 10.9 , pre-conjunction ,

-80 < T < -30 days .. m0 = 6.0 , n = 2.6 , post-conjunction


The comet has suffered a significant drop in activity conjunction post and now
only reflects almost like a solid body without gas or dust activity n = 2.6 ,
this is typical of new comets from oort cloud in the heliocentric range 1,7 < r
< 1,4 u.a. , the most probable cause is volatil change dominate the light visual
curve of CO+ --> H2O .



Regards , J. P. Navarro Pina .


按这说法几乎是噩耗:L

皮侠客 发表于 2013-1-29 08:18

本帖最后由 皮侠客 于 2013-1-29 15:04 编辑

我还是比较乐观，记得07年初的白日彗星也是在临近太阳时才大放异彩的，2011L4的近日距比它只远不到1倍，届时在太阳的烤灼下如果继续发呆，那只能说它是块石头了:lol

suhuasky 发表于 2013-1-29 12:14

1月24日SWAN上的2011L4

wb34 发表于 2013-2-1 16:09

C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS
2013 Jan 31.72 UT; m1=6.5; Dia= 5.2�; DC= 6; 11x70 B [Chris Wyatt, Walcha, NSW,
Australia]

MPEC的预报是1月31日是6.7等！！这货起来了？

wb34 发表于 2013-2-3 09:25

C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS
2013 Feb 01.72 UT; m1=6.5; Dia= 6�; DC= 6; 11x70 B [Chris Wyatt, Walcha, NSW,
Australia]
Moonlight. Tail to WSW, 12� in length and curving slightly to NW, best visible
using averted vision.
Comparison stars checked using Tycho-2 data in Guide 9.0; Method= M; Cat= TK

wb34 发表于 2013-2-6 09:51

Feb 5.70 UT, m1 6.1, Dia 5.5', DC 6' .
More condensed towards the centre
Coma elongated to the NW
11x70mm Binos

MPC预报的是6.1等，现在亮度还是吻合的。

wb34 发表于 2013-2-8 18:53

C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS
2013 Feb 7.31 UT: m= 6.2*, Dia = 3',... DC=7/, tail= 0.3 deg in PA
250...10x50B...Alexandre Amorim(Florianopolis,Brazil)

wb34 发表于 2013-2-8 18:54

C/2011 L4, 2013 Feb 6.85 UT; m1= 6.3; Dia= 3'; DC= 7; 10cm f4 refl
(20x); Short broad tail clearly seen, 20' long in PA 225 deg [Andrew Pearce,
Nedlands, W. Australia].

wb34 发表于 2013-2-8 18:55

C/201 L4 PANSTARRS
2013 Feb 06.72 UT; m1=6.3; Dia= 6.5�; DC= 7; 7x50B [Chris Wyatt, Walcha, NSW,
Australia]

suhuasky 发表于 2013-2-9 10:48

2013 Feb 2.73 UT
Canon 60Da, 5x2 minute stack. 300mm zoom lens, cropped. Magnitude 6.7. Bright stars to the left are Beta 1,2 Sgr.



2013 Feb 8.75 UT
Canon 60Da, 5x2 minute stack. 300mm zoom lens, cropped. Magnitude 5.9.
The ion tail is nearly 1 degree in PA 210 whilst the leading edge of the dust tail is 30' in PA 250.
Notice the broad dust fan.

wb34 发表于 2013-2-10 19:42

C/2011 L4, 2013 Feb 7.84 UT; m1= 6.2; Dia= 3'; DC= 7; 10cm f4 refl
(20x); Short broad tail clearly seen, 30' long in PA 235 deg [Andrew Pearce,
Nedlands, W. Australia].

wb34 发表于 2013-2-13 17:55

Comet C/2011 L4 Panstarrs
Feb 11.75UT, m1 5.2, Dia 4.0', DC 8/
Very condensed starlike coma.
More diffused towards the edges.
Broad tail 0.45 deg in length in PA 240
11x70mm Binos
Approx 10 degrees above the horizon, and the start of twilight, when observed

wb34 发表于 2013-2-13 17:56

C/2011 L4, 2013 Feb 11.85 UT; m1= 5.7; Dia= 3'; DC= 7; 10cm f4 refl
(20x); Comet located close to a 7th mag star which made observation of the tail
difficult .

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