Active: November 14 —21; Maximum: November 17, 20h50m UT (λ = 235°27), but see below; ZHR = 10 —100+?;
Radiant: α = 153°, δ = +22°; Radiant drift: see Table 6 (page 23);
v∞ = 71 km/s; r = 2.9;
TFC: α = 140°, δ = +35° and α = 129°, δ = +06° (β > 35° N); or
α = 156°, δ = -03° and α = 129°, δ = +06° (β < 35° N).
PFC: α = 120°, δ = +40° before 0h local time (β > 40° N);
α = 120°, δ = +20° before 4h local time and
α = 160°, δ = 00° after 4h local time (β > 00° N);
α = 120°, δ = +10° before 0h local time and α = 160°, δ = -10° (β < 00° N).
As the events of 2003 and 2004 demonstrated, when enhanced ZHRs of ~ 20 —40 were found, the ending of the strong to storm Leonid returns between 1998 —2002, associated with the 1998 perihelion passage of parent comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, have not meant an end to interest in this fascinating shower. This year may bring a return to still higher Leonid activity, perhaps with ZHRs of 100 —150. The timing above is for the nodal crossing, and if recent past years are a guide, any associated activity near then may be swamped by other filaments within the stream. The prediction of higher (though not storm!) rates from the 1933 filament by Rob McNaught and David Asher is timed for November 19, 4h45m UT. More recent work by Esko Lyytinen and Tom van Flandern gave a fractionally different timing of 4h48m UT, which essentially confirmed the earlier findings. The Leonid radiant rises usefully only around local midnight (or indeed afterwards south of the equator), and with new Moon on November 20, dark skies should prevail almost all night for both potential maxima. A peak close to the nodal crossing time would favour sites across Asia, but the possibly enhanced maximum timing would be best for sites in eastern North America and all of South America eastwards to Africa and Europe. Other possible maxima are not excluded (look out for any late updates in WGN or on the IMO-News e-mailing list), and observers should be watching as often as conditions allow throughout the shower, in case something unexpected happens. All observing techniques can be usefully employed. |
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